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Trading Radar: Next Week's Durable Goods Orders Are the Highlight


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) rallied back near its all-time high in the past week and began to churn under resistance. The sell-off on Wednesday following the release of the January FOMC minutes was met with buying on Thursday. Friday's options expiration session had two-way action, but looks to end up around flat for the day.

Looking forward into next week, the December 2013 S&P/Case Shiller and FHFA housing data we'll receive will be mostly backward-looking and should not have a great influence on the market. Thursday's January durable and capital goods orders will be the main report to watch. Manufacturing and retail sales data we've received for January has mostly been weaker, probably impacted by the extreme weather in the month. If there is considerable weakness in these orders it could spark further strength in US Treasuries and weakness in risk assets, particularly industrial stocks.

The second estimate of fourth-quarter US GDP, scheduled for release next Friday, shouldn't bring many surprises. Due to softer exports data and a lower revision for December 2013 retail sales, the GDP report should show a moderate decline to a 2.6% annualized rate from the initial estimate of 3.2%.

The two other releases scheduled for the next week are January new-home sales and pending-home sales. The first is the more important figure -- it might make up about 10% of all sales. Total sales are expected to drop to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 400,000 from 414,000 in December. If estimates are correct, it appears that home sales leveled off early last year.

The busiest two days next week for global economic data releases are Thursday and Friday. The reports to take note of include preliminary UK fourth quarter GDP, Germany's February employment change, preliminary February eurozone CPI, an assortment of Japanese data, and January eurozone unemployment. Canada, Switzerland, and Germany will also be updating fourth quarter GDP figures.

Next week is retail week on the earnings front. Notable reports for the sector include Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Macy's (NYSE:M), Target (NYSE:TGT), Gap (NYSE:GPS), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF). Homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) are also scheduled.

Monday, February 24

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index - expected -0.20, prior 0.16
10:30 Dallas Fed - exp 3.0, prior 3.8
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.5b-$3b bonds in 5 to 7-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $50b 3-month, $25b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY January Property Prices
09:00 EUR German IFO Expectations, Current Assessment
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Jan final estimate)


Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Frontier Communications (FTR)
GT Advanced Tech (GTAT)
Allied Nevada Gold (ANV)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Stifel Financial (SF)
Vivus (VVUS)
Solarcity (SCTY)

Tuesday, February 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

09:00 Home Price Index (Dec) - expected 0.3%, prior 0.1%
09:00 Home Price Purchase Index QoQ (4Q) - exp 1.00%, prior 1.96%
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City MoM - exp 0.60%, prior 0.88%
09:00 S&P/CS YoY - exp 13.38%, prior 13.71%
10:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - exp 80.0, prior 80.7
10:00 Richmond Fed - exp 2, prior 12
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence
07:00 EUR German GDP (4Q final)
09:30 GBP BBA Loans for Home Purchases


Home Depot (HD)
Toll Brothers (TOL)
HollyFrontier (HFC)
American Tower Corp (AMT)
T-Mobile (TMUS)

Range Resources (RRC)
First Solar (FSLR)
Questcor Pharma (QCOR)
Annaly Capital (NLY)
Macy's (M)
Office Depot (ODP)

Wednesday, February 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 New Home Sales - expected 400K, prior 414K
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b notes in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 2-year FRN (1st reopening), $35b 5-year notes


12:00 p.m. Rosengren (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Boston
7:30 p.m. Pianalto (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in Ohio

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
09:30 GBP GDP (4Q preliminary)
10:30 Germany selling EU3b 32-year bonds


Target (TGT)
Lowe's (LOW)
Cablevision (CVC)
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)

JC Penney (JCP)
L Brands (LB)
Autodesk (ADSK)
Gulfport Energy (GPOR)
Continental Resources (CLR)
Infoblox (BLOX)
Workday (WDAY)
Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Thursday, February 27

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 335K, prior 336K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2995K, prior 2981K
08:30 Durable Goods Orders - exp -1.5%, prior -4.3%
08:30 Durable Goods ex-Transports - exp -0.3%, prior -1.6%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air - exp -0.2%, prior -1.3%
11:00 Kansas City Fed - exp 2, prior 5
11:00 Fed buying $3.5b-$4.25b bonds in 4.25 to 4.75-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes


10:30 a.m. Fisher (super hawk, voter) speaks in Frankfurt
3:15 p.m. Lockhart (dove, nonvoter) and George (hawk, nonvoter) speak in Atlanta

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
06:45 CHF GDP (4Q)
08:55 EUR German Employment Change (Feb)
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
13:00 EUR German CPI (Feb preliminary)
7:00 BoJ's Sato speaks
18:30 Draghi speaks in Frankfurt


Ocwen Financial (OCN)
Walter Investment Manager (WAC)
Fortress Investment Group (FIG)
Sears Holding (SHLD)
Nationstar Mortgage (NSM)
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT)
Best Buy (BBY)

Gap (GPS)
Ross Stores (ROST)
Monster Beverage (MNST)
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) (CRM)
Medivation (MDVN)
Arena Pharma (ARNA)
Linn Energy (LINE)
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)
Splunk (SPLK)
Kohl's (KSS)
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Friday, February 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ (4Q 2nd estimate) - expected 2.6%, prior 3.2%
08:30 Personal Consumption - exp 2.9%, prior 3.3%
08:30 GDP Price Index - exp 1.3%, prior 1.3%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ - exp 1.1%, prior 1.1%
09:00 ISM Milwaukee - exp 51.00, prior 52.82
09:45 Chicago PMI - exp 56.4, prior 59.6
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (final estimate) - exp 81.2, initial 81.2
10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM - exp 1.8%, prior -8.7%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY - exp -11.6%, prior -6.1%
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 23 to 30-year range


5:00 a.m. Fisher (super hawk, voter) speaks in Zurich
10:15 a.m. Stein, Kocherlakota, Evans, and Plosser speak in NY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Jobless Rate (Jan)
JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
JPY Industrial Production (Jan preliminary)
JPY Retail Sales (Jan)
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
10:00 EUR Eurozone Feb CPI Estimate
13:30 CAD GDP (4Q)


Iron Mountain (IRM)
Newcastle Investment (NCT)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
3D Systems (DDD)
Liberty Media (LMCA)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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