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Trading Radar: Retail Sales and Producer Prices Reports Highlight Next Week

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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US equity markets completed a very volatile week, thanks to a large amount of geopolitical headlines and whispers. Over the five day period, the S&P 500 future (ES) traded in a 47 point range, but ended the week up only 0.35% despite the much higher levels of volatility in both directions. The small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) finished up about 1.5%. Friday ended the week on a positive note with n ews that Russia's government appeared to be moving towards de-escalating the situation in Ukraine.

Next week the major economic report will be July advance retail sales. Last month, unit sales were flat after adjusting for inflation. This month, sales will most likely increase as the latest inflation cycle is reaching its end. Economists expect sales to increase by 0.2%. During the month, total vehicle sales fell to an annualized rate of 16.4M from 16.92M in June. Same-store sales as reported by Johnson Redbook and ICSC were both very robust, thanks to a sales tax holiday in 12 states near the end of the month. Gasoline prices continued to trend lower during the month.

The other economic report of note for the coming week is producer prices. Economists expect the monthly rate of change in input prices to decline to +0.1% from +0.4% in June, slowing the price gain to 1.7% from a year ago to 1.9% in the previous month. If these estimates prove to be correct, it will highlight the slowdown in inflation. Also scheduled to be reported is July industrial production, and Treasury flows.

The first speeches from FOMC members since its meeting on July 30 are scheduled for next week. Regional presidents Dudley, Fisher, and Rosengren will all speak. Fisher, whom is scheduled to retire at the beginning of next year, has campaigned his case in the media that the Fed should begin hiking rates at an earlier pace. Dudley, a permanent member of the FOMC thanks to his position at the NY Fed, thinks the opposite.

The main three highlights for global economic data next week is European GDP on Thursday, and China retail sales and Japan GDP on Wednesday. Earlier this week, Italy's reported that economic growth was negative for a second straight quarter. In its monetary policy statement yesterday, the Bank of Japan noted that industrial production and exports have weakened recently. Lastly, China growth continues to improve. Retail sales may have slacked off in July, but if the export number reported today is any guide, industrial production should be very robust.

Earnings have mostly been reported for the second quarter up to this point. Notable reports for the week ahead include Wal-Mart (WMT), Cisco (CSCO), Deere (DE), JC Penney (JCP), Macy's (M), and Kohl's (KSS).

Monday, August 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
No major reports scheduled
11:30 Treasury to sell $28b 3-month bills and $25b 6-month bills

Fedspeak

3:15am Fisher (hawk, voter) speaks in Stockholm

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY New Yuan Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (July prelim)
12:15 CAD Housing Starts
 
Earnings
 
Before:
Sysco (SYY)
Dean Foods (DF)
Priceline (PCLN)

After:
Nuance (NUAN)
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)

Tuesday, August 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings - prior 4635
2:00 Treasury Budget Statement - expected -$96B, prior $70.5B
11:00 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
11:00 Fed to purchase $950m-$1.15b bonds in 22-30 year range
1:00 Treasury selling $27b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY Industrial Production (June final)
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey Current Situation, Economic Expectations

Earnings

Before:
Kate Spade (KATE)
Insys Therapeutics (INSY)
 
After:
Fossil Group (FOSL)
Cree (CREE)

Wednesday, August 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
08:30 Advance Retail Sales (July) - expected 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto - exp 0.3%, prior 0.4%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - exp 0.3%, prior 0.4%
10:00 Business Inventories (June) - exp
11:00 Fed to purchase $350m-$450m notes in 5 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $24b 10-year notes

Fedspeak

9:05am Dudley (dove, voter) speaks in New York
9:20am Rosengren (dovish, nonvoter) speaks in New York

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY GDP (2Q prelim)
05:30 CNY Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fixed Investment
06:00 EUR German CPI (July final)
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change, Unemployment Rate
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production

Earnings

Before:
Deere (DE)
Macy's (M)
Seaworld Entertainment (SEAS)
 
After:
NetApp (NTAP)
Cisco (CSCO)

Thursday, August 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, June 28, exp. 295k, prior 298k
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2500K, prior 2518k
08:30 Import Price Index YoY (July) - expected 0.8%, prior 1.2%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.6b-$1.9b notes in 5 to 6-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $16b 30-year bonds
 
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
05:30 EUR French GDP (2Q prelim)
06:00 EUR German GDP (2Q prelim)
08:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (July final)
08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (2Q advance)
12:30 CAD New Home Prices

Earnings

Before:
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Wal-Mart (WMT)
 
After:
JCPenney (JCP)
Agilent (A)
Autodesk (ADSK)
Applied Materials (AMAT)

Kohl's (KSS)
Plug Power (PLUG)

Friday, August 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing (Aug) - expected 20, prior 25.60
08:30 Producer Price Index Final Demand YoY (July) - exp 1.7%, prior 1.9%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.7%, prior 1.9%
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows (June) - prior $19.4B
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows - prior $35.5B
09:15 Industrial Production (July) - exp 0.3%, prior 0.2%
09:15 Capacity Utilization - exp 79.2%, prior 79.1%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (August prelim) - exp 82.5, prior 81.9

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:30 GBP GDP (2Q prelim)
13:00 CAD Existing Home Sales

Earnings

Estee Lauder (EL)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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