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Trading Radar: US GDP and Durable Goods Orders Highlight The Week

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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After a holiday shortened week the action on Monday could see a lot of pent up profit taking after Friday's impressive rally in thin trading.

Tuesday will be the busiest day in terms of US economic data. Durable goods orders are expected to contract signifcantly as the Industrial Production figures earlier in the month saw significant declines, even with the weakness caused by Hurricane Sandy. Later in the week, the second estimate of third quarter GDP will be released, with the quarter's annualized gain expected to rise to 2.8% from the first estimate of 2.0% last month. However, the personal spending gauge on Friday is expected to decline to a monthly gain of 0.1% from 0.8%.

Globally, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting where the central bank decided on increasing their asset purchase program by 10 trillion Yen. Elsewhere, Japan and the Eurozone will release their employment figures from the prior month.

Earnings season is beginning to slow down. This week notable reports include Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), American Eagle (AEO), Barnes & Noble (BKS), and Tiffany's (TIF).

Monday, November 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index, prior 0.00
10:30 Dallas Fed – consensus 2.0, prior 1.8
11:00 Fed selling $1.75b-$2.25b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 JPY BoJ October meeting Minutes
09:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence Index

Earnings

After:
Berry Plastics (BERY)

Tuesday, November 27

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Durable Good Orders – consensus -1.0%, prior 9.9%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus -0.6%, prior 2.0%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef ex Air – consensus -0.6%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Cap Goods Shipments Nondef ex Air – prior -0.3%
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City MoM – consensus 0.40%, prior 0.49%
09:00 S&P/CS 20 City Composite YoY – consensus 2.90%, prior 2.03%
09:00 S&P/CS Home Price Index – prior 145.87
10:00 Richmond Fed – prior -7
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 73.0, prior 72.2
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.4%
10:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ – consensus 2.0%, prior 1.8%
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.5b-$2b notes in 10 to 20-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury to sell $35b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Leading Index
01:30 CNY Industrial Profits
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
09:30 GBP GDP
11:00 Italy to sell debt

Earnings

After:
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR)
ADT (ADT)

Wednesday, November 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
10:00 New Home Sales – consensus 386K, prior 389K
2:00 Fed's Beige Book
11:00 Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $35b 5-year notes
1:15 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 6 to 8-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

13:00 EUR German CPI
23:50 JPY Retail Trade

Earnings

Before:
Express (EXPR)
Aeropostale (ARO)
After:
American Eagle (AEO)
Guess? (GES)
Workday (WDAY)

Thursday, November 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – prior 410K
08:30 Continuing Claims – prior 3337K
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) Second estimate – consensus 2.8%, prior 2.0%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 2.0%, prior 2.0%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 2.8%, prior 2.8%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.3%, prior 1.3%
10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM – consensus 0.8%, prior 0.3%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY – consensus 9.1%, prior 8.5%
11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus -3, prior -4
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 8 to 10-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $29b 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:45 CHF GDP
08:55 EUR German Unemployment
09:30 GBP Home Net Lending
10:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate
13:30 CAD Current Account Balance
23:15 JPY Nomura PMI
23:30 JPY Employment
23:30 JPY CPI

Earnings

Before:
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
After:
Ulta Salon (ULTA)
Splunk (SPLK)
Kroger (KR)
Tiffany's (TIF)

Friday, November 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.4%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.1%, prior 0.8%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.7%
08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.7%
09:00 NAPM Milwaukee – prior 43.3
09:45 Chicago PMI – consensus 51.0, prior 49.9
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Construction Orders
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
13:30 CAD GDP

Earnings

Before:
Whitewave Foods (WWAV)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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