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Trading Radar: Nonfarm Payrolls and ECB Decision Should Keep Volatility High


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

This past week was certainly turbulent. On Thursday, we got a surprise selling event, with a wide variety of causa proximas attributed to the event - the best was that Mario Draghi was cashing in on the ECB's dollar-denominated equities due to the favorable changes in the Euro exchange rate. Additionally, Friday saw the departure of bond market investor Bill Gross from PIMCO, the firm he founded and built over the last 43 years, to Janus Capital. The move will likely spark as much as 30% of inflows from PIMCO in search of other advisors, which would be negative for PIMCO's parent company Allianz SE (ALV).

Next week has two significant events for investors. First is the US government payrolls report on Friday. Last week's report of 142K was dismissed by investors and forecasters alike as an aberration. Additionally, August payrolls are revised up by an average of 44.2K over the following two months due to education-related layoffs during the month making the preliminary report inaccurate. If August is not revised up and September is not at or above the 215K estimate, then market participants will have to rethink the likelihood of a March, or even June rate hike, and whether or not a constant 3% rate of real GDP growth is possible.

The other significant event for next week is the ECB rate decision on Thursday morning. At the last meeting, President Draghi cut all ECB rates by 10bps across the board, bringing its deposit rate to -0.20%, and announced the finalized plans for the central bank's asset-backed securities (ABS) purchase program. The interest rate cut was pursued to help banks increase their take-up at last week's LTRO, which fell short of the lowest estimate - only drawing 82 billion Euros in bids. This will only embolden the ECB to take further action. A preview of the European price data that the ECB will be looking at in its meeting comes out earlier in the week. The preliminary September German CPI is scheduled for release on Monday and the wider Eurozone report on Wednesday.

Next week is essentially devoid of earnings reports. However, I would keep an eye out for any negative pre-reports from multinational companies that would be negatively effected by the stronger dollar. The only two major reports scheduled for next week are Walgreens (WAG) and Constellation Brands (STZ).

Monday, September 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
08:30 Personal Income (Aug) - expected 0.3%, prior 0.2%
08:30 Personal Spending - exp 0.4%, prior -0.1%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY - exp 1.4%, prior 1.6%
08:30 PCE Core YoY - exp 1.4%, prior 1.5%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY (Aug) - exp 1.0%, prior -2.7%
10:30 Dallas Fed - exp 11.0, prior 7.1
11:00 Fed to purchase $2b-$2.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $24b 3-month bills and $24b 6-month bills
9:00am Evans (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Chicago
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
12:00 EUR German CPI (Sep prelim)
No major reports

Tuesday, September 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
09:00 ISM Milwaukee (Sep) - expected 61.0, prior 59.63
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Home Price MoM (Jul) - exp -0.10%, prior -0.20%
09:00 S&P/CS YoY - exp 7.45%, prior 8.10%
09:45 Chicago PMI (Sep) - exp 62.0, prior 64.3
10:00 Consumer Confidence Index (Sep) - exp 92.5, prior 92.4
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
10:45am Powell (moderate, board) speaks in Washington

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Jobless Rate
JPY Retail Sales
JPY Industrial Production (Aug prelim)
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
08:30 GBP GDP (2Q final)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Sep advance)
12:30 CAD GDP (Jul)

Walgreen (WAG)

Wednesday, October 1

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
08:15 ADP Employment Change (Sep) - expected 205K, prior 204K
09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Sep final) - exp 57.9, initial 57.9
10:00 ISM Manufacturing (Sep) - exp 58.3, prior 59.0
10:00 ISM Prices Paid - exp 57.0, prior 58.0
10:00 Construction Spending MoM (Aug) - exp 0.5%, prior 1.8%
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales (Sep) - exp 13.55M, prior 13.87M
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales - exp 16.90M, prior 17.45M

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturer/Non-Manufacturer 3Q Outlook
01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI


KB Home (KBH)
Vail Resorts (MTN)

Thursday, October 2

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:30 Challenger Job Cuts - prior -20.7%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, expected 300k, prior 280k
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2440K, prior 2429k
09:45 ISM New York
10:00 Factory Orders - exp -9.3%, prior 10.5%
1:00pm Lockhart (moderate, nonvoter) speaks in Atlanta
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
01:30 AUD Trade Balance
08:30 GBP UK Consruction PMI
11:45 ECB Rate Decision
12:30 Draghi Press Conference


No major reports

Friday, October 3

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Trade Balance (Aug) - expected -$41B, prior -$40.5B
08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) - exp 215K, prior 142K
08:30 Private Payrolls - exp 200K, prior 134K
08:30 Manufacturing Payrolls - exp 14K, prior 0K
08:30 Unemployment Rate - exp 6.1%, prior 6.1%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY - exp 2.2%, prior 2.1%
10:00 ISM Services (Sep) - exp 58.5, prior 59.6

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
01:35 JPY Services PMI
08:30 GBP UK Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales


Constellation Brands (STZ)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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