Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

A Trepidatious Trader

By

For the first time since 2009, earnings growth for S&P companies has turned negative, which is a significant warning sign.

PrintPRINT
Crude oil has coiled itself tightly and a significant move appears imminent. An upside breakout bodes well for a bullish bias toward (and a re-test of) 2008 highs. Remember that commodity timing leads equity price. If you are in the camp that believes that the Fed will be successful in creating the reflation trade, as it was post WWII, crude will be a guide higher. A break of $100 per barrel will likely set in motion a run to $150-160 in WTI. Below $80 and we will likely have the deflation case diagnosed.


Click to enlarge

In August, I highlighted the looming breakout in gold. Seeing the reaction in the headlines to MBS purchasing and an extension to keeping rates substantially low by the Fed, gold has broken out of a large consolidation zone. My target remains $1900, which is where a potential double top would present itself. Interesting to note the shift in gold. Once labeled the "fear trade," that is no more. Gold has traded inline with equities for the better part of a year and should be viewed as a risk on - risk off vehicle. Thus far, it is leading the risk on trade.


Click to enlarge
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

PrintPRINT

Busy? Subscribe to our free newsletter!

Submit
 

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE