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Apple's Forward Guidance Fails to Meet Expectations


Today's financial recap and tomorrow's financial outlook.

Last night, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and IBM (NASDAQ:IBM) beat earnings by very wide margins, but today the NASDAQ-100 could only muster a 0.65% gain for the day despite their gains of over 5%. The big show today was Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings due to its big weighting in the two major US indexes. Before the earnings, the options were implying a 7.79% move, the highest implied volatility over the last eight earnings reports. The technology giant reported EPS of $13.81, beating estimates of $13.53, but missed revenues at $54.51 billion vs $54.88 billion estimates. Forward guidance for second quarter revenues was on the lighter side and Apple's CFO noted on the conference call that it was not the usual conservative guide that Apple had given in the past. Apple's stock dropped more than 8% in post-market trading and dragged US equity futures with it.

Early in the day, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2013 to 3.5% from 3.6% and lowered its US growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.1%. The eurozone growth forecast was lowered substantially to a contraction of 0.2%, down from the prior estimate of a gain of 0.3%. Initially, the EURUSD declined, but most of these losses were made up by the US equity close.

Pre-market, Coach (NYSE:COH) missed earnings for the first time since the first quarter of 2006, and it was a big miss. Coach reported EPS of $1.23 versus estimates of $1.28 and missed revenues as well. The company noted a decline in North American comparable sales of 2%, much lower than the estimated gain of 2.7%. Coach saw a notable decline of store traffic in both malls and outlets; the holiday season had been more challenging than expected.

Treasury bonds continued their divergence of higher days today while equities showed positive gains. Out of the last 14 sessions, Treasuries have gained 11 times. The 10-year yield declined only nominally to 1.83%.

Tomorrow's Financial Outlook

Tomorrow morning the US will release initial jobless claims data from the prior week. This week's report is expected to remain relatively unchanged at a weekly pace of 370,000 claims, down marginally from 371,000 last week. Later in the morning, the Conference Board will release its index of leading economic indicators, which is expected to rise 0.4% in December, up from a decline of 0.2% in November.

Globally, the eurozone and China will release manufacturing PMI data. In China, the HSBC flash manufacturing report is expected to show a small gain to 51.7 in January from last month's 51.5. In Europe, the initial estimate of manufacturing and services PMI in January is expected to rise to 47.5 from last month's 47.2.

In earnings, Brunswick (BC), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Knight Capital (KCG), Xerox (XRX), Raytheon (RTN), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), WW Grainger (GWW), Cypress Semi (CY), AT&T (T), Microsoft (MSFT), Starbucks (SBUX), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), E*TRADE (ETFC), Juniper (JNPR), Tempur-Pedic (TPX), and 3M (MMM) will report.

Twitter: @Minyanville

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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