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Trading Radar: Next Week Offers First Glimpse of July Consumer and Housing Data

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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There was very little news in the past week, which made for little fireworks and volatility. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) did record a lower weekly close after making new all-time highs in the week prior. Services growth continued to be explosive. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 56.0 in July from 52.8 the month prior.

Now let's take a look ahead at what's coming up next week in potentially market-moving news.

On Tuesday we receive the first piece of solid consumer growth from the 3Q in the advance retail sales report. June nominal consumer spending, which remains near the lowest point in the last four years, grew by 0.5% month-over-month, and 3.3% year-over-year. Same-store sales for the month of July grew at a steady pace of 2.9% year-over-year and gas prices were up 4.1% for the month. Retail sales are forecast to grow 0.3% in the month of July.

On Wednesday, producer price indices from the month of July will be released. Recently, producer prices have increased sharply, in line with steep increases in the price of crude oil and other basic materials. Crude oil for July delivery was up 6.82% in the month of June. Producer prices are expected to increase 2.4% from a year ago, but decrease by 2.5% compared to June.

Additional information on consumer price inflation is due out on Thursday. The July consumer index is expected to increase to a growth rate of 2.0% from the prior year, rising 1.8% from the month prior, largely due to increases in gasoline prices. More importantly, the core index is expected to increase to an annual rate of 1.7% from 1.6% the month prior. Thursday also brings a first glimpse of manufacturing data with the regional New York survey.

Friday will include the first piece of housing data from July: monthly housing starts and building permits. In the month of June, housing starts showed the biggest one-month drop in history, which is especially troublesome because of the effect of rising mortgage rates on new housing contracts. The large drop was due to multi-family starts, but we also saw the first monthly decline in single-family starts in two years.

The majority of companies have now reported for the second quarter. Tech companies like JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU), Cree (NASDAQ:CREE), Agilent (NYSE:A), and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) are on the calendar for next week. Additionally, consumer bellwether Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) is set to report before the opening on Thursday.

Monday, August 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
11:30 U.S. to sell $30b 3M bills, $25b 6M bills
14:00 Monthly Budget Statement - July, est. -$90b, prior - $69.6b

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY Industrial Production
07:15 CHF Retail Sales
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance
23:50 JPY Bank of Japan July 10-11 Meeting Minutes
23:50 JPY Machine Orders

Earnings

Sysco (SYY) is expected to report EPS of $0.55.
WuXi PharmaTech (WX) is expected to report EPS of $0.34.


Tuesday, August 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

7:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism - July, est. 94.7, prior 93.5
8:30 Import Price Index - July, est. 0.8%, prior -0.2%
8:30 Import Price Index Y/y - July, prior 0.2%
8:30 Retail Sales Advance M/m - July, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
8:30 Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/m - July, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%
8:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gasoline - July, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
8:30 Retail Sales Control Group - July, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
10:00 Business Inventories - June est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 2018-2043 sector
11:30 U.S. to sell 4W bills, 21-day cash management bills

Fed Speak
12:45 Fed's Lockhart speaks on economy in Atlanta

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:00 Greece to Sell EU 1b 91D bills
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
06:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index
08:30 GBP Producer Price Index
08:30 GBP Consumer Price Index
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey
22:45 NZD Retail Sales

Earnings

Cree (CREE) is expected to report EPS of $0.30.
CST Brands (CST) is expected to report EPS of $0.89.
Valspar (VAL) is expected to report EPS of $1.11


Wednesday, August 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications - Aug. 9,prior 0.2%
8:30 Producer Price Index M/m - July, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
8:30 PPI Ex-Food and Energy M/m - July, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
8:30 PPI Y/y - July, est. 2.4%, prior 2.5%
8:30 PPI Ex-Food and Energy Y/y – July, prior 1.7%
11:00 New York Fed report on household debt
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.5b notes in 2036-2043 sector

Fed Speak

13:20 Fed's Bullard addresses Rotary Club of Paducah, Kentucky
15:15 Fed's Bullard speaks on monetary policy at Paducah, Kentucky, convention center

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
05:30 EUR French Gross Domestic Product
06:00 EUR Germany Gross Domestic Product
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Price
08:30 GBP Bank of England Minutes
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate
09:30 CHF ZEW Survey
09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index

Earnings

Agilient (A) is expected to report EPS of $0.62.
Applied Industrial Technology (ATI) is expected to report EPS of $0.76.
Cisco (CSCO) is expected to report EPS of $0.47.
Deere (DE) is expected to report EPS of $2.16.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) is expected to report EPS of $0.75.
First Citizens Banc (FCZA) is expected to report EPS of $0.17.
Macy's (M) is expected to report EPS of $0.79.
Towers Watson (TW) is expected to report EPS of $1.25.


Thursday, August 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims - Aug. 9, est. 330k, prior 333k
8:30 Continuing Claims - Aug. 3, prior 3.018m
8:30 Empire Manufacturing - Aug. 7, est. 10, prior 9.46
8:30 Consumer Price Index M/m - July, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
8:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy M/m - July, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
8:30 CPI Y/y, July - est. 2%, prior 1.8%
8:30 CPI Ex-Food and Energy Y/y - July, est. 1.7%, prior 1.6%
8:30 CPI Index, July - est. 233.729, prior 233.504
8:30 CPI Core Index – July, est. 233.643
9:00 Total Net TIC Flows - June, prior $56.4b
9:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows - June, prior -$27.2b
9:15 Industrial Production, July - est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
9:15 Capacity Utilization, July est. 77.9%, prior 77.8%
9:15 Manufacturing Production, July - est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort - Aug. 11
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index - Aug., est. 57, prior 57
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook - Aug., est. 15.3, prior 19.8
11:00 Fed to purchase $3b-$4b notes in 2019-2020 sector
11:00 Treasury announces offering size for auction of 5Y tips

Fed Speak

8:15 Fed's Bullard speaks on economy in Louisville, Kentucky

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
13:00 CAD Existing Home Sales

Earnings

Applied Materials (AMAT) is expected to report EPS of $0.19.
Bally Technologies (BYI) is expected to report EPS of $0.93.
Nordstrom (JWN) is expected to report EPS of $0.88.
Perrigo (PRGO) is expected to report EPS of $1.56
PetSmart (PETM) is expected to report EPS of $0.86.
Red Robin (RRGB) is expected to report EPS of $0.66.
Wal-Mart (WMT) is expected to report EPS of $1.25.


Friday, August 16

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

8:30 Non-farm Productivity - 2Q preliminary, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
8:30 Unit Labor Costs - 2Q, est. 1.3%, prior -4.3%
8:30 Housing Starts, July, est. 903k, prior 836k
8:30 Housing Starts M/m, July, est. 8%, prior -9.9%
8:30 Building Permits, July, est. 950k, prior 911k, revised 918k
8:30 Building Permits M/m - July, est. 3.5%, prior -7.50%, revised -6.8%
9:55 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Aug. preliminary, est. 85.5, prior 85.1
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b debt in 2020-2023 sector

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

Earnings

Buckle (BKE) is expected to report EPS of $0.52.
Enstar Group (ESGR) is expected to report EPS of $1.76.
Main Street Capital (MAIN) is expected to report EPS of $0.50.

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Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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