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Trading Radar: FOMC Decision Is the Focus

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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This past week we saw stocks generally meander higher to what seems like all-time highs at SPX (INDEXSP:.INX)1576. Generally, economic data was better for the week as retail sales jumped 1.1% despite the potential weaknesses associated with lower real incomes.

In the coming week, all of the attention will be focused on the release of the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT. It is unlikely that the Fed pulls back its monthly asset purchases, but there is a chance that there will be discussion about explicit targeting for the end of the current LSAP program. But overall, we should expect to see a dovish bent from the Fed and should not expect to see any test balloons floated over the potential for tapering until after the meeting.

In economic news, the majority of the releases next week will be focused on housing data. Last month, the NAHB Housing Market Index dropped for the first time in 10 months. The index measures optimism in the housing market as reported by real estate agents and homebuilders. Housing starts saw a sudden drop in January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 890,000 and they are expected to rebound in February.

On the earnings front, the notable releases are from Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), FedEx (NYSE:FDX), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Nike (NYSE:NKE), and Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI)


Monday, March 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index - consensus 47, prior 46
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $35b 3-month bills, $30b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY China Property Prices
06:45 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts

Earnings

No major earnings


Tuesday, March 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Housing Starts - consensus 915K, prior 890K
08:30 Building Permits - consensus 923K, prior 904K
11:00 Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD RBA Policy Meeting Minutes
05:00 JPY Leading Index
09:30 GBP PPI
09:30 GBP CPI
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
21:45 NZD Current Account Balance

Earnings

Adobe (ADBE)
Cintas (CTAS)


Wednesday, March 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
2:00 FOMC Rate Decision
2:30 Fed press conference

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR German PPI
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
09:30 GBP Employment numbers
10:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Survey
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
21:45 NZD GDP
23:50 JPY Trade Balance
11:30 Germany selling EU4b 10yr notes

Earnings

Before:
General Mills (GIS)
Lennar (LEN)
FedEx (FDX)
After:
Jabil Circuit (JBL)
Oracle (ORCL)


Thursday, March 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 342K, prior 332K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3075K, prior 3024K
08:58 Markit US PMI Preliminary - consensus 54.9
09:00 House Price Index - consensus 0.7%, prior 0.6%
10:00 Philly Fed - consensus -2.0, prior -12.5
10:00 Existing Home Sales - consensus 5M, prior 4.92M
10:00 Leading Indicators - consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 10yr TIPS 1st reopening

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services/Manufacturing PMI (1st estimate)
09:30 GBP Retail Sales

Earnings

Before:
Ross Stores (ROST)
After:
Nike (NKE)
Conagra (CAG)
Micron Tech (MU)


Friday, March 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major reports
11:00 Fed buying $3b-$3.75b notes in 5.5 to 7-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR German IFO Business Expectations

Earnings

Before:
Darden Restaurants (DRI)


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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