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Trading Radar: Upcoming Retail Sales Data May Help Determine Weather's Effect on Economy

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) ended this past week not far from where it started despite the volatility in between. The benchmark index started off the week at 1,782 and is currently trading about 10 points above that level. Today's January nonfarm payrolls report highlighted potential weakness in economic activity outside of the perceived weather-related slowdown. As such, investors will be paying closer attention to economic data in the weeks ahead to determine if this is a soft patch or a worrying, negative trend.

January advance retail sales will be released next Thursday. Economists estimate that sales will be flat month-over-month. Preliminary sales reports from retailers in January have been mostly poor, so there is certainly the risk that sales will fall short of expectations. Johnson Redbook same-store sales fell 0.2% in the month of January, according to data released this past Tuesday.

The other important US economic report for the upcoming week is the preliminary February University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index, scheduled for release on Friday. This will be the first piece of advance data for the month of February. Income growth remains stubbornly low and US markets have been increasingly volatile, which should be a drag on consumer sentiment. Nonetheless, the expectation is for a slight decline in the index to 80.5 from 81.2.

Janet Yellen, who recently started her term as Chairperson of the Federal Reserve, will testify in front of the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday morning. Although it is unlikely she will give any great hints on the future direction of monetary policy, the two events and her prepared remarks will be closely focused on by investors.

Economic developments in global markets have becoming increasingly more important lately, especially activity in emerging markets. On this coming Friday, the major eurozone nations will release their preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures. The economist estimate is for 0.2% quarter-over-quarter growth, raising the year-over-year growth rate to 0.4% from -0.4% in the quarter prior. Other notable reports for the week include December 2013 eurozone industrial production, Australia's January employment situation, and Japan's current account balance.

Most major companies have reported their fourth-quarter results. Notable reports for the week ahead include Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF), Kraft Foods (NASDAQ:KRFT), and Pepsi (NYSE:PEP).

Monday, February 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major reports scheduled
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b bonds in 7- to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $42b 3-month, $42b 6-month bills, $50b cash management bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Bank Lending
JPY Current Account Balance
CNY New Yuan Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
09:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
13:15 CAD Housing Starts

Earnings

Before:
Hasbro (HAS)

After:
Masco (MAS)
Nuance (NUAN)
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
Rackspace (RAX)

Tuesday, February 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism - expected 93.3, prior 93.9
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings - prior 4001
10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Dec) - exp 0.5%, prior 0.5%
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $30b 30-year notes

Fedspeak

9:00am Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks in Delaware
10:00am Yellen (dove, chair) testifies to House Financial Services Committee
8:00pm Lacker (moderate, nonvoter) speaks at Stanford
8:10pm Fisher (hawk, voter) speaks in Dallas

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Home Loans
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence

Earnings

Before:
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Regeneron Pharma (REGN)
Dean Foods (DF)
Mosaic (MOS)
Sprint (S)

After:
Fossil (FOSL)
FireEye (FEYE)
IntercontinentalExchange Group (ICE)

Wednesday, February 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
2:00 Treasury Monthly Budget Statement - expected -$28.5B
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $24b 10-year notes

Fedspeak

8:45am Bullard (moderate, nonvoter) speaks in New York

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Machine Orders
CNY Trade Balance
08:15 CHF CPI
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
10;30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
15:30 ECB's Draghi speaks in Brussels

Earnings

Before:
Deere (DE)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Incyte (INCY)

After:
Sunpower (SPWR)
CBS (CBS)
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Cisco (CSCO)
Zillow (Z)
Whole Foods (WFM)
MetLife (MET)
NetApp (NTAP)
Fidelity Financial (FNF)

Applied Materials (AMAT)
Angie's List (ANGI)

Thursday, February 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Advance Retail Sales MoM (Jan) - expected 0.0%, prior 0.2%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto - exp 0.1%, prior 0.7%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - exp 0.1%, prior 0.6%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - exp 330K, prior 331K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2975K, prior 2964K
10:00 Business Inventories - exp 0.4%, prior 0.4%
1:00 Treasury selling $16b 30-year bonds

Fedspeak

10:30am Yellen (dove, chair) testifies to Senate Banking Committee

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Employment Change
07:00 EUR German CPI
09:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
13:30 CAD New Home Price Index

Earnings

Before:
Avon Products (AVP)
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT)
Bunge (BG)
Generac Holdings (GNRC)
Burger King (BKW)
Pepsi (PEP)
Apache (APA)

After:
Kraft (KRFT)
Agilent (A)
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)
Avis Budget (CAR)
WhiteWave Foods (WWAV)

Friday, February 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Import Price Index YoY - expected -1.3%, prior -1.3%
09:15 Industrial Production (Jan) MoM - exp 0.3%, prior 0.3%
09:15 Capacity Utilization - exp 79.3%, prior 79.2%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Feb preliminary) - exp 80.5, prior 81.2
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 4 to 5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
CNY FDI
01:30 CNY CPI & PPI
06:30 EUR French GDP (4Q preliminary)
07:00 EUR German GDP (4Q preliminary)
09:00 EUR Italian GDP (4Q preliminary)
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (4Q advance)

Earnings

Before:
Campbell Soup (CPB)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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