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Trading Radar: How Much Will Sandy Affect November's Economic Data?

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Next week, US economic data that is reported on a monthly basis will begin to truly reflect the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Thus far, only weekly jobless claims have been able to reflect this data. As a whole, economist estimates are moderate for the coming data, seeing as a whole small declines on a month-to-month basis.

It is also jobs week. On Wednesday, the ADP Institute will release its private payroll figures; on Friday, the Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls. Both reports are forecast to decline, though given the recent market downturn, this is not wholly unexpected. The nonfarm payrolls report is expected to decline to a monthly gain of 95,000 from last month's 171,000 and the ADP report is expected to decline to 130,000 from 158,000.

Globally, China will release a slew of manufacturing data, which recently has begun to show signs of bottoming. In central bank news, the Australian, English, and European central banks will all release their monthly rate decisions. The Royal Bank of Australia is expected to lower rates to 3.00% from 3.25% and the Bank of England may choose to increase its asset purchase program.

In earnings, the notable reports will be Smith & Wesson (SWHC), Toll Brothers (TOL), Pandora (P), Finisar (FNSR) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW).


Monday, December 3

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:58 Markit US PMI Final – consensus 51.5, prior 52.4
10:00 ISM Manufacturing – consensus 51.5, prior 51.7
10:00 ISM Prices Paid – consensus 53.3, prior 55.0
10:00 Construction Spending MoM – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.6%
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales – consensus 14.80M, prior 14.22M
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales – consensus 11.30M, prior 11.10M
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Capital Spending
00:30 AUD Retail Sales
01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
08:15 CHF Retail Sales
08:45 EUR Italian PMI
09:30 GBP PMI

Earnings

No major earnings


Tuesday, December 4

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:45 ISM New York – prior 45.9
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Current Account Balance
03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
10:00 EUR PPI
14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
11:00 Italy to sell debt

Earnings

Before:
Autozone (AZO)
After:
Pandora (P)
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Big Lots (BIG)


Wednesday, December 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change – consensus 130K, prior 158K
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity – consensus 2.7%, prior 1.9%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – consensus -0.9%, prior -0.1%
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus 0.0%, prior 4.8%
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite – consensus 53.5, prior 54.2
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 6 to 8-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD GDP
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
08:45 EUR Eurozone PMI Services
09:30 GBP PMI Services
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
9:30 Spain to sell debt
11:30 Germany to sell EU4b 2-year notes

Earnings

After:
Finisar (FNSR)


Thursday, December 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 Challenger Job Cuts – prior 11.6%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 380K, prior 393K
08:30 Continuing Claims – prior 3287K
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5-$2.25b notes in 25-30 year range
2:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 8 to 10-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Employment
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
06:45 CHF CPI
09:30 GBP Trade Balance
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP (1st estimate)
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders
12:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Earnings

Before:
Smithfield Foods (SFD)
After:
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)


Friday, December 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls – consensus 95K, prior 171K
08:30 Private Payrolls – consensus 105K, prior 184K
08:30 Manufacturing Payrolls – consensus -5K, prior 13K
08:30 Unemployment Rate – consensus 7.9%, prior 7.9%
08:30 Average Weekly Hours – All Employees – consensus 34.4, prior 34.4
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (1st estimate) – consensus 82.0, prior 82.7
3:00 Consumer Credit – consensus $10.0B, prior $11.37B
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Leading Index
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

Earnings

No major earnings

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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