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Trading Radar: ECB Rate Hike on the Horizon?


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

US equities shot up on Friday after November and December's jobs data showed a bigger increase than had been previously reported. For January, nonfarm payrolls were about inline with expectations and the market reacted favorably to this news. Treasuries, which rallied hard only to reverse lower for a negative weekly finish. The ISM manufacturing index showed a big increase, in sync with the big increase of new orders and inventories we've seen from the Chicago PMI and Markit PMI indexes.

Next week is lighter on the economic data scale, with the major highlight being the the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision. Last month, the ECB turned a bit more hawkish after the month prior when the committee was pushing for an additional rate cut. Since that day, the EURUSD has rallied sharply.

In the US, the notable economic reports will be the monthly factory orders and non-manufacturing ISM. Factory orders are expected to increase in January as most other manufacturing reports showed growth. However, the ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to remain relatively unchanged month-to-month as the big boost was restricted to the manufacturing sector alone.

Earnings will have another big week. The major reports include Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), Visa (NYSE:V), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Sprint (NYSE:S), and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD).

Monday, February 4

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:45 ISM New York
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus 2.2%, prior 0.0%
11:00 Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b bonds in 7 to 9.5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
09:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
09:30 GBP Construction PMI
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI
11:00 Italy to sell notes, inflation-linked bonds


Humana (HUM)

Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
Yum Brands (YUM)
Gilead Scienes (GILD)
Acme Packet (APKT)

Tuesday, February 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

10:00 ISM Non-manufacturing – consensus 55, prior 55.7
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism – consensus 46.0, prior 46.5
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 29-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b in 52-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Trade Balance
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
09:30 GBP Services PMI
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
11:30 Germany selling EU1b in 10-year inflation linked notes


NYSE Euronext (NYX)
Emerson Electric (EMR)
HCA Holdings (HCA)
Sirius XM (SIRI)
Kellogg (K)

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Walt Disney (DIS)
Aflac (AFL)
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Shutterfly (SFLY)
CME Group (CME)
Expedia (EXPE)
Zynga (ZNGA)

Wednesday, February 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
11:00 Fed buying $3b-$3.75b notes in 5 to 7-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Retail Sales
11:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders
21:45 NZD Employment
11:30 Germany to sell EU2b 30-year bonds


Virgin Media (VMED)
Marathon Oil (MRO)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Time Warner (TWX)
Nu Skin (NUS)
Ralph Lauren (RL)

News Corp (NWSA)
Atmel (ATML)
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR)
Allstate (ALL)
Prudential Financial (PRU)
Visa (V)
Yelp (YELP)

Thursday, February 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 350K, prior 330K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3191K, prior 3157K
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity – consensus -1.0%, prior 2.9%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – consensus 2.9%, prior -1.9%
3:00 Consumer Credit – consensus $14.5B, prior $16.05B
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 29-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Employment Change
05:00 JPY Leading Index
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
13:30 CAD New Home Price Index
23:50 JPY Trade Balance


Starwood Hotels (HOT)
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Phillip Morris (PM)
Cigna (CI)
Sprint (S)
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
OpenTable (OPEN)
LinkedIn (LNKD)
Coinstar (CSTR)
Riverbed (RVBD)
American Capital Agency (AGNC)

Friday, February 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Trade Balance – consensus -$46B
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.6%
11:00 Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 4 to 29-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Trade Balance
04:30 JPY Eco Waters Survey
05:30 CNY CPI
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
08:15 CHF Retail Sales
12:15 CAD Housing Starts
13:30 CAD Employment


Apollo Global (APOL)
Moody's (MCO)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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