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Trading Radar: Durable Goods Highlight a Busy Week


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

A number of small-, mid-, and large-cap US indices broke to new record levels this week after shaking off a number of market-rattling geopolitical events, including Russia's annexation of Crimea and further depreciation in the Chinese renminbi. Friday was also a triple-witching options expiration day, meaning monthly stock, index, and quarterly index future options all expired at the same time. Traders can expect overhang from these expirations on Monday.

The release of the FOMC's economic projections and comments from Janet Yellen at her first press conference as Fed chief have caused considerable volatility in interest rates. On Friday, FOMC speakers played down Yellen's comment that the Fed would begin raising its benchmark interest rate six months after it ceased its asset purchase program. Next week, the markets will be paying keen attention to eight speeches from various FOMC members. If the speeches were to clarify any of Yellen's comments, they would likely be a positive catalyst for equities.

Next week has three significant economic data reports in the US: February durable goods, personal spending, and new-home sales. Considering the harsh weather during the month, there's a risk of missing expectations to the downside with all three reports. Producer prices already reported for February pointed to a significant slowdown in trade services, which implies that durable and capital goods orders for the month may show similar weakness. Advance retail sales for February rose 0.3% month-over-month.

The third and final estimate of fourth-quarter domestic GDP will be released on Thursday. Economists are expecting a slight increase in the quarterly annualized rate of growth due to a sizable decrease in the current account deficit for the quarter. Economists are now expecting growth will be 2.7% in the quarter, up from the most recent government-reported estimate of 2.4%.

This coming Sunday, the advance estimate of China's March HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI will be released. Because of the recent slowdown in China's economic activity -- a dip attributed to the Lunar New Year holiday, which usually shuts factories for much of February -- it's very likely any positive movement in this index ends up being a positive catalyst for Chinese risk assets on Monday. The report will be released on Sunday at 9:45 p.m. EDT.

Earnings season has not officially started for the first quarter, so the coming week will only feature a few reports. Companies of note include Walgreen (NYSE:WAG), Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX), Gamestop (NYSE:GME), and PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH).

Monday, March 24

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Chicago Fed - expected 0.10, prior -0.39
09:45 Markit US Manufacturing Preliminary PMI - exp 56.5, prior 57.1
11:00 Fed to purchase $500m-$750m notes in 11 to 20-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 3-month, $23b 6-month bills
09:00am Stein speaks in Washington

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (March advance)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI (March advance)

No major reports scheduled

Tuesday, March 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
09:00 FHFA Home Price Index (Jan) MoM - exp 0.5%, prior 0.8%
09:00 S&P/CS 20-City Composite MoM - exp 0.60%, prior 0.76%
09:00 S&P/CS YoY - exp 13.40%, prior 13.42%
10:00 Consumer Confidence - exp 78.5, prior 78.1
10:00 Richmond Fed - exp 3, prior -6
10:00 New Home Sales - exp 445K, prior 468K
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.25b notes in 22 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b 3-year notes
4:00pm Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
7:00pm Plosser speaks in New York

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence
09:00 EUR German IFO Current Assessment, Expectations
09:30 GBP CPI


Walgreen (WAG)
PVH Corp (PVH)
Carnival (CCL)

Wednesday, March 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Feb) - expected 0.7%, prior -1.0%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports - exp 0.3%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air - exp 0.5%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Shipments Nondef Ex Air - exp 1.0%, prior -0.8%
09:45 Markit US Services PMI Preliminary - exp 5.40, prior 53.3
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes in 7.5-10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $13b 2-year FRN
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes
2:00am Bullard speaks in Hong Kong on monetary policy
8:20pm Bullard speaks in Hong Kong on monetary policy

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator


No major reports scheduled

Thursday, March 27

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 322K, prior 320K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2882K, prior 2889K
08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ (4Q final) - exp 2.7%, prior 2.4%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ - exp 1.3%, prior 1.3%
10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM - exp 0.1%, prior 0.1%
11:00 Kansas City Fed - exp 5, prior 4
11:00 Fed buying $3.75b-$4.5b bonds in 4 to 5-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes
8:30am Pianalto speaks in Ohio
9:30pm Evans speaks in Hong Kong
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD Trade Balance
01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD
09:30 GBP Retail Sales


Conn's (CONN)
Gamestop (GME)

Friday, March 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Personal Spending - expected 0.3%, prior 0.4%
08:30 Personal Income - exp 0.3%, prior 0.3%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY - exp 0.9%, prior 1.2%
08:30 PCE Core YoY - exp 1.1%, prior 1.1%
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 22 to 30-year range
12:45pm George speaks in Kansas City

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Jobless Rate
JPY Retail Sales
CNY Leading Index
09:30 GBP GDP (4Q final)
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence


No major reports scheduled
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