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Trading Radar: Dollar General, American Eagle Report Ahead of Retail Sales Data


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

The US added a net 175,000 payrolls in February, slightly above the 150,000 that had been expected, and revisions over the prior two months accounted for another 23,000 jobs. Next week should see a slower news flow, as is typical after jobs weeks. China will wrap up its National People's Congress on Thursday. In the past week, the Chinese government announced its official 2014 growth target of 7.5% and a 12.2% increase in defense spending.
The most prominent economic data point scheduled to be reported next week is February retail sales. During the month, unadjusted comparable sales fell by 4.5% from the prior month in retail stores, according to ICSC/Goldman. Sales dropped 0.4% month-over-month in January, thanks to a 2.1% monthly decline in sales of motor vehicles and parts. February total vehicle sales rose marginally to a 15.27 million seasonally adjusted annual rate from 15.16 million in January. Economists are expecting retail sales to rise 0.2% in February.
The preliminary March University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index will be reported on Friday morning. The consensus estimate is for the index to show a very slight rise to 82.0 from 81.6 last month. Keep in mind that consumer confidence is a good measure of personal income and stock prices, or in some cases fiscal policy or geopolitical risks.
Other reports to note that will contribute toward the first-quarter GDP report include wholesale and private business inventories. The newly overhauled producer price index will be reported on Friday.
The global data scheduled to be reported next week is largely manufacturing based. Industrial or manufacturing production is scheduled to be reported from the UK, eurozone, China, and Japan. Additionally, Australia will report its February employment change. Many investors are short the Australian dollar versus other major currencies, and an increasing rate of employment gains will translate through to stronger exchange rates.

The majority of companies have already reported fourth-quarter earnings to this point, which leaves a smattering of retailers scheduled for next week. These reports include American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO), Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS), and Dollar General (NYSE:DG). Also scheduled to report are VeriFone (NYSE:PAY) and SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE:SEAS).

Monday, March 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major reports scheduled
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b bonds in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 3-month, $23b 6-month bills
6:15am Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks in Paris on panel
12:40pm Evans (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Georgia

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY GDP (4Q Final)
JPY Current Account Balance (Jan)
05:00 CNY New Yuan Loans
05:30 JPY Bankruptcies
09:15 CHF Retail Sales
10:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
13:15 CAD Housing Starts

Urban Outfitters (URBN)
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)

Tuesday, March 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism - expected 94.0, prior 94.1
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings - prior 3990
10:00 Wholesale Inventories - exp 0.4%, prior 0.3%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.25b notes in 22 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $30b 3-year notes
10:00am Senate Banking Committee hearing to confirm Fed Board nominees (Stanley, etc)
4:15pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in NY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (Feb prelim)
08:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Jan)
10:00 EUR Italian GDP (4Q final)
10:30 GBP Industrial and Manufacturing Production
16:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Feb)


American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
Verifone Systems (PAY)
Diamond Foods (DF)
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)

Wednesday, March 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
2:00 Monthly Budget Statement - exp -$206B
11:00 Fed buying $750m-$1b TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $21b 10-year notes (1st reopening)
7:00pm Fisher (hawk, voter) speaks in Mexico City
8:30pm Williams (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Seattle

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Home Loans
06:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index (Feb)
10:30 GBP Trade Balance
11:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
11:30 Germany selling EU4b 2-year bonds


Vail Resorts (MTN)

Thursday, March 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 338K, prior 348K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2993K, prior 2964K
08:30 Advance Retail Sales (Feb) - exp 0.2%, prior -0.4%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto - exp 0.1%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas - exp 0.2%, prior -0.3%
08:30 Import Price Index YoY - exp -1.9%, prior -1.5%
10:00 Business Inventories - exp 0.4%, prior 0.5%
11:00 Fed buying $3.25b-$4b bonds in 4.25 to 4.75-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds (1st reopening)
10:00am Senate to confirm Fed candidates Fischer, Brainard, Powell

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD RBNZ Rate Decision
Japanese Investor Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
01:30 AUD Employment Change (Feb)
06:30 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (Feb)
06:30 CNY Retail Sales YTD
06:30 CNY Industrial Production YTD
13:30 CAD New Home Price Index


SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS)
Aeropostale (APO)
Ulta Salon (ULTA)
Dollar General (DG)
Plug Power (PLUG)

Friday, March 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Producer Price Index Final Demand YoY (Feb) - expected 1.1%, prior 1.2%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.4%, prior 1.3%
09:55 UofM Consumer Confidence (March advance) - exp 82.0, prior 81.6
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 22 to 30-year range
9:45pm Fisher (hawk, voter) speaks at Stanford

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Minutes of Feb 17-18 BoJ meeting
05:30 JPY Industrial Production (Jan final)
08:00 EUR German CPI (Feb final)


No major reports scheduled

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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