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Trading Radar: Investor Risk Sentiment Will Dominate Price Action

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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With equities closing on the lows on Friday, the main determinant of asset prices next week are going to be the sentiments of various market participants. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed directly on the 200dma today, a level that it has not touched in 23 months - a widely publicized fact. As well, the two year uptrend has been broken.

The only economic repot of note next week is September retail sales. The headline figure will be low due to the 10 cent drop in gasoline prices last month.

Earnings begin in earnest on Tuesday with most of the major banks reporting next week. Some of the bigger names like Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG) will also report.

US bond markets will be closed on Monday, although equity markets will be open for trading.

Monday, October 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
US bond markets closed for Columbus Day holiday
No major economic reports
 
Fedspeak:
 
12:30pm Evans (dove, nonvoter) speaks in Indianapolis
 
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Trade Balance
 
Earnings
 
No major reports

Tuesday, October 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep) - expected 95.8, prior 96.1
11:00 Fed to purchase $850m-$1.05b bonds in 22 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $24b 3-month bills and $27b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Foreign Direct Investment
08:30 GBP CPI & PPI
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation, Expectations)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production

Earnings

Before:
JPMorgan (JPM)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Citigroup (C)
 
After:
CSX (CSX)
Intel (INTC)

Wednesday, October 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
08:30 Empire Manufacturing (Oct) - expected 20.25, prior 27.54
08:30 Advance Retail Sales (Sep) - exp -0.1%, prior 0.6%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto - exp 0.2%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas - exp 0.4%, prior 0.5%
08:30 Producer Prices Final Demand YoY (Sep) - exp 1.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.7%, prior 1.8%
10:00 Business Inventories (Aug) - exp 0.4%, prior 0.4%
2:00 Fed's Beige Book
11:00 Fed to purchase $950m-$1.15b notes in 4 to 5-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills, $25b 52-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
 
01:30 CNY CPI & PPI
06:00 EUR German CPI (Sep final)
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (Aug)
8:00am and 7:00pm Draghi speaks in Frankfurt

Earnings

Before:
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Keycorp (KEY)
Blackrock (BLK)
Bank of America (BAC)
St Jude Medical (STJ)
 
After:
Netflix (NFLX)
American Express (AXP)
United Rentals (URI)
eBay (EBAY)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

Thursday, October 16

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, expected 294k, prior 287k
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2440K, prior 2429k
09:15 Industrial Production (Sep) - exp 0.4%, prior -0.1%
09:15 Capacity Utilization - exp 79.0%, prior 78.8%
10:00 Philly Fed - exp 20.0, prior 22.5
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) - exp 59, prior 59
4:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows - prior -$18.6B
4:00 Total Net TIC Flows - prior $57.7B
11:00 Fed to purchase $150m-$250m bonds in 10 to 19-year range
 
Fedspeak
 
8:00am Plosser (hawk, voter) speaks in Allentown, PA
9:00am Lockhart (moderate, nonvoter) speaks in New Brunswick, NJ
10:00am Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks in Billings, MT
1:00pm Bullard (hawk, nonvoter) speaks in Washington
 
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Sep final)

Earnings

Before:
Baker Hughes (BHI)
BB&T (BBT)
UnitedHealth (UNH)
Alliance Data Systems (ADS)
Mattel (MAT)
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Dover (DOV)
Phillip Morris (PM)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
 
After:
Capital One Financial (COF)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Xilinx (XLNX)
Sandisk (SNDK)
Google (GOOG)
 
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
Blackstone (BX)
Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Friday, October 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Housing Starts (Sep) - expected 1005K, prior 956K
08:30 Building Permits - exp 1030K, prior 998K
 
Fedspeak
 
8:30am Yellen (dove, chair) speaks in Boston

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
12:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

Honeywell (HON)
General Electric (GE)
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Suntrust Bank (STI)
Synchrony Financial (SYF)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Bank of NY Mellon (BNY)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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