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The T3 Morning Market Call: Futures Lower After Unconvincing Oversold Bounce


The question now is whether we can hold Monday's low, or whether we could test deeper support levels.

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World markets are mixed this morning and S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) futures are down four to five handles as there doesn't seem to be much interest in buying this dip yet.

Yesterday, our markets tried to muster a bounce but it was very feeble and unimpressive. The question now is whether we can hold Monday's low, or whether we could test deeper support levels. The S&P 1645ish level is the spot to navigate if you are actively approaching this area. A break and close below that level and the next important one to watch would be 1633ish, which is where the 100-day currently stands. If that spot holds, perhaps some pressure could come off the markets with a close above 1658ish. During corrective phases I believe you should be more measured with your risk and involvement.

Fed minutes come out this afternoon and continue to be an obsession of the market. What's good about all the "taper talk" is that it has raised rates without the Fed having to do anything. Rates have gone up and the market, which was up a scintillating 20% for the year, has cooled off a bit. I think that is healthy. The question now is, has the taper been completely priced in?

I do think at the last Fed meeting, the markets were a bit stronger here and around the world, so the minutes could be leaning toward a September taper. If it were a "new meeting" today, perhaps the tone would be a little different. Either way, it should be interesting. Use the pivot we discussed for adjustments regardless, which for the SPY (NYSEARCA:SPY) is $164.76-$164.87.

In our Morning Call we will re-visit the banks, many of which had nice, tradable "Red Dog Reversals" yesterday. If we were to hold in today, these should stay above yesterday's lows, so there could be an opportunity in this group during this soft open.

The Financial ETF (NYSEARCA:XLF) has been stuck in a down trend since August 5 and broke below its 50-day last week. Yesterday it had a Red Dog Reversal at $19.75 that gave us a nice calculated setup for cash flow, with a stop at the low of the day of $19.72. The ETF had decent gains of 0.96%. The next obstacle is the 50-day, which stands at $20.08. A break and close above this could help the ETF to regain some power. See if this can create a "higher low" today or if yesterday was just a one-day trade.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) saw a nice snap back yesterday after four days down and also gave us a calculated Red Dog Reversal signal at Monday's low of $158.53. It has some resistance from the 50-day at $160.42 after breaking below it Monday. Reclaiming this key moving average could help the stock to regain some upside momentum. See if it holds above yesterday's low.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) held its prior pivot high of $13.99 and had a nice bounce back to register 1% of gains yesterday. It's constructive to see this bank holding the prior pivot high. A break and close above the 8- and 21-day moving averages at $14.40 could bring in some buyers. See if it shows any relative strength today.

Citigroup (NYSE:C) broke below its 100-day at $49.18 and snapped back above it yesterday. The stock saw an outside day at the 50-day, which is a positive sign. Next obstacle is the 50-day at $50.40. A break and close below this could lead to higher prices in the coming session.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) broke below its 100-day on Monday, then put in a big bottoming tail yesterday as it tried to reclaim this key moving average, which is currently standing at $52.30. A close above this could confirm the validity of this bounce-type rally. This stock is where the headline risk has been, so it's been a bit weaker than the rest.

We will also go over stocks that continue to show relative strength.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) had a nice gap and go yesterday. The stock was moving up slowly but managed to clear all resistance levels to put in a new high at $273.54. It closed on highs and well above the prior pivot high of $270.31. It would be nice to see it hold above $263.79, which would be healthy for higher prices moving forward. Use yesterday's new high of $273.54 as the new point of reference to trade against.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) continued to act well after breaking above the short-term downtrend resistance last week. After four up days, it'll be hard to initiate a new long up here, but holding above the 8-day at $144.34 could lead to some potential continuation above $149.78

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) had a nice three-day move after finding some footing at the $36 level. It was prudent to book some profits, but the stock has room for a move back to 2013 high of $39.32 as long as the market doesn't add too much pressure.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR) had a nice three-day up move to push into the key resistance of $82.95 before breaking out to a new high at $83.77. The stock closed well off of lows signaling potential upside follow-through above $83.77

Some other notables from yesterday:

Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) had a big gap and go yesterday after the company beat its earnings estimate. BBY has basically returned from the dead this year and now has a strong-looking chart as the stock has been grinding higher above its 21-day moving average since June. It could see some continuation above yesterday's high of $34.82. Gap support stands at $33.

The TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) also had an impressive gap and go move yesterday, as it broke above all key moving averages and is already back at 2013 highs. With the speed and power of yesterday's move, it could see some upside follow-through above $54.41 if the market continues to hold.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) has been inching higher and looks like it could break out of the bull flag consolidation pattern that was built in the past two weeks. The stock has been holding above its 8- and 21-day moving averages. A move through $110.33 could set it back in motion for higher prices.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) took a break yesterday after an impressive move since the Icahn news. Use yesterday's low as the new point of reference. Next micro support stands at $498ish then there is a bigger area around $493.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) seems like it wants to hold in. It needs to hold $55.72 to stay interesting, and then if it gets above $57.50 we could see it gain some momentum.

Fed watch:

The Gold ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) had a really nice move for tactical traders since the "blood on the Street lows" on June 28. It's a bit weaker this morning, creating another flag. See if $131.30 holds, or if it tests the $130ish important spot for active momentum. Above $133.27 it could go again.

The 20-Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) had a small pullback yesterday as it was overbought. Yesterday's low was $80.85 and bigger support stands around $79.67, which could be a spot to "buy that dip." The 21-day is $77.63, which is the moving average that it's been holding since May.

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Scott J. Redler is long FB, BAC, GE, LVS.
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