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The Lead-Lag Report: How Jobs Data Has Altered Nearly All Intermarket Trends


Jobs numbers have ended the risk-off trade, at least for now.


Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:XLP) – Breakdown

Comments: Consumer staples were in a strong relative uptrend, signaling increased defensiveness within the market up until last week when a sharp turnaround took place following strong jobs number. The trend for now appears to be broken, signaling justification in the risk-on trade.

Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) – Income Breaks

Comments: Utilities went vertical, and then broke down hard much like consumer staples following strong jobs numbers with the release of the ADP report. This is conceivably a bullish juncture, as the risk-off fever internally breaks.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (NYSEARCA:IPE) – Sideways or Up?

Comments: The IPE/TENZ price ratio is one way of seeing if inflation expectations are rising or falling within the bond market. When the ratio is trending higher, it means bets are occurring on rising prices ahead. Note that the ratio was falling up until last week. The trend now will be important for confirmation of risk-on sentiment.


The case for a correction appears to be over given the sharp turnaround in various intermarket trends, nearly all of which took place following last week's ADP jobs report release. My firm's ATAC (Accelerated Time and Capital) models used for managing our mutual fund and separate accounts rotated back to stocks on this, but remain ready to get defensive again should risk-on sentiment internally fail to hold.

Editor's note: This update is published every week exclusively for Minyanville, and is compiled by Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist of Pension Partners, LLC.

Twitter: @pensionpartners
No positions in stocks mentioned.

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

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