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SPX Update: Time to Stay Alert for a Correction


Some signals to watch over the coming sessions.

Yesterday's update noted that the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) was in a somewhat ambiguous position, and that remains the case today. The waveform has gotten a bit sloppy over the past few sessions -- nevertheless, an added degree of caution is called for since the wave perfectly reached January's target zone, and the waveform can be counted as complete at blue degree. If my preferred wave count is correct, the current rally should be nearing a correction -- but it must be noted that there is as yet still no solid indication of a turn. I've annotated a 10-minute chart of the SPX, which should help provide clues.

The first important zone is now 1514 +/-, and sustained trade beneath that support zone may provide the catalyst for a deeper correction. Yesterday's decline appeared impulsive (to me, anyway), but left just enough doubt to keep more bullish near-term options on the table (black count). If my preferred interpretation of the decline as an impulse is correct, there should be some downside follow-through over the next few sessions.

Click to enlarge

The hourly chart is materially unchanged over the past several weeks, and if the preferred count is correct, then the blue wave 4 correction is underway (or will be after one more small wave up). While I'm inclined to view yesterday's decline as an impulse wave, which suggests downside follow-through, there are presently no solid targets with the market in this position.

Click to enlarge

In conclusion, the wave has now reached dead-center into the target zone, and has registered momentum divergences while doing so. When targets are reached, it's always time for added caution, and indeed blue wave 3 can be counted as complete (or nearly so). It's time to start watching for further signs of a correction. Trade safe.

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