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SPX Update: Bears Vs. the Fed


Can market history trump Fed liquidity?

So let's talk about what is most definitely, without a doubt, for sure going to happen today! Get set to mortgage the house because I'm givin' ya gems here! Ready? What will most certainly happen today (and there is almost no doubt in my mind!) is: The sun will rise. You heard it here first! As far as the market goes, though, we're still in the inflection zone -- so the bears will either get it done here, or they won't.

The hourly chart remains materially unchanged, though I was able to correct the ChiOsc in the lower panel (yesterday, the Java program simply wouldn't let me draw the signal line where I wanted it.)

Click to enlarge

I've detailed two 10-minute charts of SPX. The first one notes a confluence of resistance sitting just overhead, in the 1585-1590 zone I talked about yesterday:

Click to enlarge

The second 10-minute chart attempts to interpret the near-term wave structure. This is actually a pretty funky wave form going back to the 1536 swing low, so if you're trading this, then please do so cautiously.

Click to enlarge

In conclusion, I remain in favor of the bear view, but it's make or break time for that view. Trade safe.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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