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SPX, HYG, NDX, BKX: S&P 500 Reaches 1,000-Point Gain


A look at long-term NDX, BKX, and HYG and some key pivot levels.


I'd also like to update the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX), which I haven't updated since November 28, when I wrote:

Next is an attempt to decipher the Nasdaq 100 long-term chart. Note that daily MACD has now crossed over onto a buy signal (this is true on several other indices as well, including SPX), and is rising from an oversold position. Also of note, it is difficult to count the rally since 2009 as a complete wave structure, which suggests at least one more wave up is due before a long-term top.

NDX is another one worth keeping an eye on. It has made the new high I thought it would, and the "most obvious" count here is still pointed higher. But this chart does have the potential for a series of 3-wave rallies into an ending diagonal, so I wouldn't suggest any level of complacency. If the dashed red key overlap is crossed, then it will be time to get bearish on the bigger picture.

Click to enlarge

SPX has the potential of an expanded flat for the near term, which becomes higher probability if 1660 is overlapped, and very high probability if 1655.73 is overlapped.

Click to enlarge

The hourly SPX chart is shown below:

Click to enlarge

In conclusion, based on BKX, I actually headed into this update "wanting" to be bullishly complacent. However, HYG and NDX are two charts that suggest complacency isn't necessarily a good idea here (as if it ever is!), and it will be interesting to see if there's any psychological reaction to the 1000-point gain in SPX. In any case, we have potential targets, and some clear levels to watch going forward. Trade safe.

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