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Odds in Favor of S&P 500 Rising During Q4: Canaccord


Since 1950, markets in the fourth quarter of election years have been up all but two times.

MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL In the "if history is any guide" department, Canaccord Genuity equity strategist Tony Dwyer says to expect the market to be up in the fourth quarter.

"Since 1950, the fourth quarter of an election year has historically been very strong for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX). Of the past 15 elections, the fourth quarter of the election year was up 13 times. The only two negative occurrences were in the recessions of 2000 and 2008, so unless you believe we are in a recession with money availability shut down, it stands to [reason] the SPX should see a meaningful advance through year end," Dwyer wrote in his November research notes.

By the numbers, of the 13 quarters that were positive, the minimum gain was 1%, the average was 4.79%, and maximum advance was 8.73%, respectively. Since one-third of the time the fourth quarter of an election year was up >8%, that translates to a one-third chance of a 9% gain from current levels, Dwyer explained.

With 79% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings, 63% are beating average expectations by 4%. Canaccord's 2013 SPX target remains 1,650.

In English: The SPX is in the process of forming a higher low.

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