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The Lead-Lag Report: Markets Heal


Market internals continue to suggest the mini-correction may be over. The question now becomes whether or not the reflation trade returns.


Healing is a matter of time, but it is sometimes also a matter of opportunity.

Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other, with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios, which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator.

For a full version of the Lead-Lag Report, click here.


Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (NYSEARCA:EFA) – Acceleration

Comments: Developed markets have had a nice move in the past few months, outperforming a weaker US market. This is consistent with the broader rotation into foreign assets independent of the corrective period US equities have been in. The trend has continued and appears to be accelerating, as confidence grows in developed international markets.

Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) – Creeping Higher

Comments: Last week I stated that "I suspect, however, that if this correction is nearing its end, then materials could begin to rally in a strong way." A period of strength does appear to be creeping in, which would be broadly bullish as money gets comfortable in a pickup of industrial growth expectations. This, in turn, would continue to make international markets an attractive play relative to the US.

Technology (NYSEARCA:XLK) – Bounce

Comments: Last week I wrote that "following technology's roundtrip collapse, a bottom may be near which could result in a strong snap-back for the sector. More time is needed to confirm, but from a trading perspective, it seems plausible to play a return to leadership." The moment seems to be here for this to happen, as a bounce around support takes place.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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