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Trading Radar: Holiday-Shortened Week Ahead


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) finished the week right where it started and traded in a small range throughout the week. The notable economic datapoint from the week was the inline retail sales for January. Retail sales rose 0.1% month-to-month, inline with expectations and not showing a slowdown associated with increased taxes.

On Monday, US markets will be closed for Presidents' Day. US futures markets will be open for a half day, however.

Looking forward, we see housing related data in the weak ahead. On Tuesday is the NAHB Housing Market Index, the survey of real estate agents' and homebuilders' outlook on the housing market. The index continues to forecast increased housing activity in the future. The other housing data is forecasting a slowdown in new housing starts as building permits reflect last month's large jump in starts.

The two big datapoints for the week are the minutes from the Fed's January meeting. Recently, Fed officials have begun to increasingly discuss the slowdown in monthly asset purchases and its exit strategy, so details will likely be gleaned from these minutes. The other is the monthly consumer price index, or consumer inflation. The annual gauge is expected to decline slightly to 1.6% from 1.7% in December.

Globally it will be on the quieter side. The eurozone will release consumer confidence for February and manufacturing services PMI.

The notable earnings reports for the week include Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), Marriott International (NYSE:MAR), MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and AIG (NYSE:AIG).

Monday, February 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

US markets closed for Presidents' Day.

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders
23:30 AUD RBA Feb Minutes



Express Scripts (ESRX)

Tuesday, February 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) – consensus 48, prior 47
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $35b 3-month bills, $30b 6-month bills, $35b 64-day bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:00 JPY Leading Index
09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (Feb)
22:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index (Dec)
11:30 Germany selling EU1b in 5-year inflation linked notes


Westlake Chemical (WLK)
Sealed Air (SEE)

Marriott International (MAR)
Dell (DELL)
CF Industries (CF)
Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX)
Newfield Exploration (NFX)
Terex (TEX)
Fidelity National Financial (FNF)

Wednesday, February 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 922K, prior 954K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 920K, prior 909K
08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.3%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.7%, prior 2.0%
2:00 FOMC Minutes
11:00 Fed buying $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

03:30 JPY All Industry Activity (Dec)
06:00 EUR German PPI (Jan)
06:00 EUR German CPI (Jan)
08:30 GBP Employment Change (Jan)
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey Economic Expectations (Feb)
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb)
11:30 Germany to sell EU5b 10-year notes


MGM Resorts (MGM)
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)
Devon Energy (DVN)
Owens Corning (OC)

Goodrich Petroluem (GDP)
Crocs (CROX)
Walter Energy (WLT)
Polypore International (PPO)
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
DISH Network (DISH)

Thursday, February 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 356K, prior 341K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3147K, prior 3114K
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.7%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.9%
08:30 CPI NSA – consensus 230.297, prior 229.601
08:58 Markit US PMI preliminary – consensus 55.5
10:00 Philly Fed (Feb) – consensus 1.0, prior -5.8
10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 4.90M, prior 4.94M
10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.5%
11:00 Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b notes in 5.5 to 7-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $9b in 30-year TIPS

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CHF Real Estate Index
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (Jan)
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services (Feb 1 est)
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jan)
09:30 Spain selling 3,7,10-year notes
09:50 France selling 2,4,5-year notes


Host Hotels (HST)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Carlyle Group (CG
Linn Energy (LINE)
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Safeway (SWY)

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Frontier Communications (FTR)
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Nordstrom (JWM)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
Flowserve (FLS)
Sourcefire (FIRE)
Aruba Networks (ARUN)
OfficeMax (OMX)

Friday, February 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major reports
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 CNY China Property Prices (Jan)
00:35 CNY MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (Feb)
06:00 EUR German GDP (4Q Final est)
08:00 EUR German IFO Economic Expectations (Feb)
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Jan)
12:30 CAD CPI (Jan)


Gardner Denver (GDI)
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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