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Trading Radar: Dow Makes New Highs, With Even Newer Highs in Sight

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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Markets continued to ramp higher this week, breaking new highs on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) and approaching multi-year highs for the broader S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX). Jobs data for the week showed strong improvement, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday jumped to a monthly rate of 236,000 from the January report, which was revised down to 119,000 from 157,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% from 7.9% on the dual effect of citizens leaving the workforce and the strong increase in jobs. All indicators remained in bullish territory as money continued to make its way into the equity market.

Next week economic reports slow down as earnings reports hit a lull. The major reports for the week are the Consumer Price Index and retail sales. Current sales data in hand indicates that February sales should continue to show growth, albeit at a slightly reduced pace due to higher taxes in 2013. Economists are forecasting a 0.5% gain in February from 0.1% in January. The CPI data is expected to rise on an annualized basis to 1.8% from 1.6% last month. An increase of this magnitude should bring out calls for a potential pullback in Fed purchases, but we don't believe that this is on the short-term horizon.

On the Treasury auction front, there will be new supply in the form of first reopenings for the 10-year note and the 30-year bond.

On the global front, there is not much to mention. The UK NIESR will release preliminary GDP results for February, which have the potential to show a triple dip recession in the UK. Also, the Swiss National Bank will make its rate decision on Thursday, though no large change is expected.

There are relatively few earnings reports on the calendar. Only Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN), and Costco (NASDAQ:COST) are set to report.


Monday, March 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $35b 3-month bills, $30b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY New Yuan Loans
JPY Machine Orders
07:00 EUR German Trade Balance
08:15 CHF Retail Sales
09:00 EUR Italian GDP

Earnings

Before:
Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS)
After:
Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN)
Diamond Foods (NASDAQ:DMND)


Tuesday, March 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – consensus 89.5, prior 88.9
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings – prior 3.617m
2:00 Treasury Statement – consensus -$220B
11:00 Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b in 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
07:00 EUR German CPI
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
12:30 Germany selling EU1b 10-year inflation bonds

Earnings

Costco (NASDAQ:COST)


Wednesday, March 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Import Price Index MoM – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.6%
08:30 Retail Sales – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Retail Sales Less Autos – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.2%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.1%
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $21b in 10-year notes (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Home Loans
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
11:30 Germany selling EU5b 2-year notes

Earnings

No major earnings


Thursday, March 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 350K, prior 340K
08:30 Continuing Claims – prior 3094K
08:30 Current Account Balance – consensus -$113B, prior -$107.5B
08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.4%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.8%
11:00 Fed purchasing $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Employment Change
04:30 JPY Industrial Production
08:30 CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
9:30 Spain selling 2, 5, 10-year notes
9:50 France selling 5, 10, 15-year notes

Earnings

After:
Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO)
Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA)


Friday, March 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus 8.5, prior 10.04
08:30 Consumer Price Index – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.6%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.0%, prior 1.9%
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $25.2B
09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows – prior $64.2B
09:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.1%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 79.3%, prior 79.1%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (March 1st estimate) – consensus 77.7, prior 77.6
11:00 Fed buying $4.75b-$5.75b notes in 4 to 5-year sector

9:30 Fisher speaking on banking in Maryland

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

Earnings

No major earnings


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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