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Trading Radar: Will June Housing Data Continue to Disappoint?

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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It's Friday again; time to look ahead into next week for potentially market-moving news.

Friday capped a record-setting week. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) reached a new all-time closing high of 1689.37. Economic data from June was very poor. Retail sales growth ex auto and gas contracted 0.1% for the month. Consumer inflation only rose 1.8% year-over-year though the core reading dropped to 1.6% from 1.7% the month prior.

US durable goods orders for June are on tap for Thursday, with economists expecting 1.1% monthly growth and 0.5% monthly growth in orders ex-transports. It's important to remember that although the headline number is largely dependent on the month-to-month large aircraft orders from Boeing (NYSE:BA), the majority of economists pay attention to the ex-transports figure. In May, durable goods orders ex-transports rose by 0.7%, while capital goods orders rose a strong 1.1%. This coincides with strong gains that were seen in the regional and national manufacturing surveys throughout the month. It appears that late April marked a low in the manufacturing cycle; investors are expecting a peak in activity into late-August coincident with a decline in orders as the fiscal debates heat up in the fall. The regional manufacturing survey of business conditions in Kansas City is also due out on Thursday, though its relevance to total manufacturing activity is on the lower end.

Other highlights of the week will revolve around home sales for June: Existing home sales figures will be released on Monday and new home sales numbers will be released on Wednesday. In this past week, new housing starts showed the largest miss versus consensus in history, with housing starts falling to a 836,000 seasonally-adjusted annual rate. The majority of this miss was due to the typically volatile drop in multi-family starts, though single-family starts showed a continued decline and may indicate a peak. Generally, though, housing demand remains robust despite the 1.2% rise in interest rates over the past two months. (Commercial properties have suffered a harder hit because of the increased rates.)

In existing home sales numbers we will see the most detailed picture of the housing recovery to date. So far this year, sales of distressed properties (short sales or foreclosures) have fallen to 18% from 25% in 2012 and from a peak of 34% in 2011. On the other hand, investors' share of purchases have continued to decline while cash buyers and first-time buyers have shown a corresponding increase as the drivers of increased total purchases. Finally, existing home sales inventory reached an 11-year low in January, representing a boon for residential construction as long as demand continues. Equally, it's worth noting that single-family homes under construction showed the first decline in over two years in June.

The last notable release for the week is on Friday. The final estimate of the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence survey will be released. It is very rare for the survey to show any major changes.

Over the weekend, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will hold elections for the upper house of the nation's Parliament. Thus far, market expectations are for an Abe landslide victory. Any big difference from the expected result should lead to uneasiness in Japan and by extension, US markets, come Monday morning. Economic releases for the rest of the world will feature manufacturing and growth figures. The eurozone will release manufacturing indices on Wednesday. On Thursday, the UK will release its first estimate of GDP from the 2Q. Economists are expecting real growth to pick up to 1.4% year-over-year from 0.3% in the 1Q.

Earnings will be hot and heavy next week, the second week featuring results from several S&P 500 companies. Since the majority of financial reports were released this week, the focus will now be on the tech and auto sectors. The most notable report to watch for is Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL), due as part of a conference call beginning Tuesday at 2 p.m. PT. Traders will be paying keen attention to Apple's numbers given the atrocious results just released from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG).


MONDAY, July 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

8:30 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index – June, prior -0.3%
10:00 Existing Home Sales - June, est. 5.25m, prior 5.18m
10:00 Existing Home Sales M/m - June, est. 1.4%, prior 4.2%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector
11:30 U.S. to sell $30b 3M bills, $25b 6M bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

No major economic reports

Earnings

Crane Co (CR) is expected to report EPS of $1.05.
Gannett Co Inc (GCI) is expected to report EPS of $0.59.
Halliburton (HAL) is expected to report EPS of $0.72.
Hasbro Inc (HAS) is expected to report EPS of $0.35.
McDonald's (MCD) is expected to report EPS of $1.40.
Netflix (NFLX) is expected to report EPS of $0.41.
NVR (NVR) is expected to report EPS of $12.38.
Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) is expected to report EPS of $0.49.
Texas Instruments (TXN) is expected to report EPS of $0.46.
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) is expected to report EPS of $0.42.


TUESDAY, July 23

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

9:00 FHFA House Price Index - May, est. 0.8%, prior 0.7%
10:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - July, est. 8, prior 8
11:00 Fed to purchase $3-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
11:30 U.S. to sell 4W bills, $25b 52W bills
13:00 U.S. to sell $35b 2Y notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July
08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase
12:30 CAD Retail Sales
14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
22:45 NZD Trade Balance
23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance

Earnings

ACE (ACE) is expected to report EPS of $1.92.
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) is expected to report EPS of $1.47.
Altria (MO) is expected to report EPS of $0.63.
Apple (AAPL) is expected to report EPS of $7.31.
Anixter International (AXE) is expected to report EPS of $1.54.
AT&T (T) is expected to report EPS of $0.68.
Avery Dennison (AVY) is expected to report EPS of $0.69.
B/E Aerospace (BEAV) is expected to report EPS of $0.85.
Broadcom (BRCM) is expected to report EPS of $0.59.
Carlisle Cos (CSL) is expected to report EPS of $1.36.
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) is expected to report EPS of $0.56.
Du Pont (DD) is expected to report EPS of $1.27.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) is expected to report EPS of $0.40.
Juniper Networks (JNPR) is expected to report EPS of $0.18.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is expected to report EPS of $2.21.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) is expected to report EPS of $1.50.
Panera Bread (PNRA) is expected to report EPS of $1.77.
Peabody (BTU) is expected to report EPS of -$0.04.
Polaris (PII) is expected to report EPS of $1.11.
TD Ameritrade (AMTD) is expected to report EPS of $0.31.
Valero Energy (VLO) is expected to report EPS of $0.93.
Wendy's (WEN) is expected to report EPS of $0.06.


WEDNESDAY, July 24

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications - July 19, prior -2.6%
8:58 Markit U.S. PMI Preliminary - July, est. 52.5
10:00 New Home Sales - June, est. 484k, prior 476k
10:00 New Home Sales M/m - June, est. 1.7%, prior 2.1%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector
13:00 U.S. to sell $35b 5Y notes


Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Consumer Prices
1:45 CHY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
7:30 EUR Germany Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
7:30 EUR Germany Purchasing Managers Index Services
8:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manger Index Composite
21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

Earnings

Baidu (BIDU) is expected to report EPS of $1.21.
Boeing (BA) is expected to report EPS of $1.58.
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) is expected to report EPS of $0.25.
Caterpillar (CAT) is expected to report EPS of $1.70.
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is expected to report EPS of $0.57.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) is expected to report EPS of $0.94.
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) is expected to report EPS of $0.84.
E*Trade Financial (ETFC) is expected to report EPS of $0.13.
F5 Networks (FFIV) is expected to report EPS of $0.85.
Facebook (FB) is expected to report EPS of $0.09.
Ford (F) is expected to report EPS of $1.21.
General Dynamics (GD) is expected to report EPS of $1.63.
Moody's Corp (MCO) is expected to report EPS of $0.91.
Motorola (MSI) is expected to report EPS of $0.92.
Omnicare (OCR) is expected to report EPS of $0.87.
PepsiCo (PEP) is expected to report EPS of $1.19.
Qualcomm (QCOM) is expected to report EPS of $0.91.
Raymond James (RJF) is expected to report EPS of $0.65.
Seagate Technology (STX) is expected to report EPS of $1.19.
T Rowe Price (TROW) is expected to report EPS of $0.95.
US Airways (LCC) is expected to report EPS of $1.53.
Visa (V) is expected to report EPS of $1.79.


THURSDAY, July 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims - July 20, est. 340k, prior 334k
8:30 Continuing Claims - July 13, est. 2.98m, prior 3.11m
8:30 Durable Goods Orders - June, est. 1.1%, prior 3.6%, revised 3.7%
8:30 Durables ex-transportation - June, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%, revised 0.5%
8:30 Capital Goods Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft - June, est. 0.7%, prior 1.1%, revised 1.5%
8:30 Capital Goods Shipments non-defense, ex-aircraft - June, est. 1.1%, prior 1.7%, revised 1.9%
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, July 21
11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing - July, est. 0, prior -5
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 2017-2018 sector
13:00 U.S. to sell $29b 7Y notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate
08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product
23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index

Earnings

3M (MMM) is expected to report EPS of $1.70.
Actavis (ACT) is expected to report EPS of $1.85.
Amazon (AMZN) is expected to report EPS of $0.04.
Biogen (BIIB) is expected to report EPS of $1.80.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (MMM) is expected to report EPS of $0.44.
Celgene (CELG) is expected to report EPS of $1.30.
Cirrus (CRUS) is expected to report EPS of $0.39.
Dolby (DLB) is expected to report EPS of $0.31.
DR Horton (DHI) is expected to report EPS of $0.35
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) is expected to report EPS of $0.4.
Expedia (EXPE) is expected to report EPS of $0.70.
General Motors (GM) is expected to report EPS of $0.78.
Hershey (HSY) is expected to report EPS of $0.71.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is expected to report EPS of $0.69.
Lazard (LAZ) is expected to report EPS of $0.31.
Lorrillard (LO) is expected to report EPS of $0.80.
McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI) is expected to report EPS of $0.81.
Mead Johnson (MJN) is expected to report EPS of $0.84.
Newmont Mining (NEM) is expected to report EPS of $0.41.
PulteGroup (PHM) is expected to report EPS of $1.70.
Starbucks (SBUX) is expected to report EPS of $0.53.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) is expected to report EPS of $0.73.
Under Armour (UA) is expected to report EPS of $0.14.


FRIDAY, July 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

9:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence - July final, est. 84, prior 83.9
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2043 sector

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

No major global economic reports are scheduled.

Earnings

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) is expected to report EPS of $1.17.
KKR & Co (KKR) is expected to report EPS of $0.30.
Lear Corp (LEA) is expected to report EPS of $1.34.
Linn Energy (LINE) is expected to report EPS of $0.24.
NV Energy (NVE) is expected to report EPS of $0.24.
Omega Healthcare (OHI) is expected to report EPS of $0.61.
Tyco (TYC) is expected to report EPS of $0.48.
Ventas (VTR) is expected to report EPS of $0.31.
Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) is expected to report EPS of $0.30.
WisdomTree Investments (WETF) is expected to report EPS of $0.09.

Here's a look at Minyanville's top market stories from the past week:

How to Play Apple Inc. and VMware as We Enter Earnings Season

The Single Most Important Stock Market Metric
The US Stock Market: Raging Bull or Suspended Reality?

New Highs for the Market, New Lows From the Technicals

Why Are Homebuilders So Optimistic?

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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