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Best of the Blogs: 50% Chance Greece Will Leave Eurozone?


Minyanville's daily roundup of some of the best financial commentary from around the Web.

This column highlights the most interesting and useful business and financial commentary from around the Web each day. Use our comments section to post your own suggestions for blog content that you've read or written.
Wall Street Journal: Real Time Economics
"JPMorgan (JPM): There's now a 50% chance of Greece leaving, up from 20% before the country's politicians failed to produce a coalition government. Regional unemployment could be higher than 'anything seen in the past half-century.' In terms of policy responses 'the euro-system's direct exposure appears manageable in the context of large revaluation gains but if losses exceed the readily available buffer, eurozone sovereigns may be called upon to make immediate capital injections.'" (For related content, see Europe Tries to Reanimate Dead Tissue.)

Business Insider: SAI
"And now for some more bombshell news about the Facebook IPO... Earlier, we reported that the analysts at Facebook's IPO underwriters had cut their estimates for the company in the middle of the IPO roadshow, a highly unusual and negative event. What we didn't know was why. Now we know. The analysts cut their estimates because a Facebook executive who knew the business was weak told them to." (Also read Will Facebook Become Hedgeable?)
Zero Hedge
"The full set of DTCC data is in (that is the repository for reporting CDS data) and reading between the lines provides us with some significant color on what was occurring at JPM's CIO office....First things first, the position does not appear to have any HY9 tranche involvement at all, but a modest short HY credit index position was unwound in mid-Feb (we suspect related to the IG9 tranche unwind - since the delta ratio makes some sense at 1x ($25bn HY) to 5x ($120bn IG tranche). But nothing has been done since then."
"Google (GOOG) has spent the past year trying to dodge trustbusters who snared its archrival Microsoft (MSFT). The company has built an army of 22 lobbying firms, donated to political campaigns, hired a former GOP congresswoman, and brought in academics, trade groups, spin masters and others to counter complaints about Google's business practices." (Also read Just How Green Is Google?)
Financial Times: FT Alphaville
"'China in fact faces three major structural causes of capital flight. First, the empirical portion of this paper will conduct three calculations to show that the wealthiest 1% households in China commands wealth that is at least as large as 2/3 of the foreign exchange reserve and possibly as high as nearly twice its size. Thus, if the top 2.1 million households in a nation of 1.3 billion people decide to move even 30% of their wealth overseas, the foreign exchange reserve will reduce by a trillion dollars or more.'"

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