Group A is no surprise with France emerging as the winner, beating Mexico rather easily with a high per capita GDP and only 6.2% of the population living below the poverty line.
Tough match. What it came down to was France showing a much higher standard of living with per capita GDP comparatively robust and a much lower reported percentage living below the poverty line. Algeria was able to counterattack with positive real GDP and low public debt, but with inflation running above 4%, the Algerian squad simply ran out of gas at the end.
South Korea was viewed by many as a dark-horse contender entering the World Cup. Versus Australia, the decision was very narrow, both countries matching up very well with Australia retaining a slight edge in real GDP and per capita GDP. Eventually, the Aussies' high rankings in the Index of Economic Freedom World Rankings (3 compared to South Korea's 31) was the deciding factor.
Group B was rather evenly matched across the board. Nigeria, South Korea, and Greece managed to eke out victories in two categories apiece while Argentina scored in only one with the lowest percentage of population living below the poverty line. Greece was eliminated by virtue of its massive public debt, 113% of GDP, leaving Nigeria and South Korea battling in the second round. The two were evenly paired, but with 70% of its population below the poverty line, Nigeria proved no match for South Korea.
The much-awaited USA-England match-up proved anti-climactic. USA scored in both the per-capita-GDP and population-living-below-poverty categories while in the group, England could only manage the lowest unemployment rate, which was still rather high at 8%. Knocking off England, USA found itself matched against Slovenia, emerging via penalty shoot-out thanks to a much higher score in the Index of Economic Freedom world rankings (8 vs. 61). Ultimately, in the second round the USA squad was overwhelmed by Algeria's combination of positive real GDP growth and low public debt.
Despite having no ranking in the poverty line category (no data was available via the CIA World Factbook), Australia entered the World Cup as a worthy favorite to emerge from Group D into the quarterfinals and certainly didn’t disappoint. Germany also was expected to advance to the second round with both Serbia and Ghana, high inflation/high unemployment, providing relatively little economic competition.
No upsets in Group E matches; Denmark and the Netherlands both entered World Cup play with relatively high per capita GDP, low unemployment, and modest public debt. Still mired in deflation, Japan was unable to mount any kind of economic offensive. The second-round match between Denmark and Netherlands was decided by a penalty shoot-out, Denmark narrowly advancing thanks to a higher score in the Index of Economic Freedom world rankings (9 vs. 15).
As expected, both Italy and New Zealand scored easy advances into the second round with higher standards of living than either Paraguay or Slovakia. With positive real GDP growth and far lower public debt than Italy, New Zealand was easily able to advance to the quarterfinals.
With the exception of Korea DPR, Group G was evenly matched among Brazil, Portugal, and Ivory Coast. While Ivory Coast put up a good fight showing positive real GDP growth, Brazil and Portugal both show much higher standards of living and higher per capita GDP. The second round match-up between Brazil and Portugal came down to a penalty shoot-out with Portugal ranked 62 on the Index of Economic Freedom World Rankings while Brazil checked in at a lowly 113.
The only surprise here was the poor showing by Spain, unable to compete versus Switzerland or even Chile in most economic categories. The second round match-up was a walkover, with Switzerland easily advancing to the quarterfinals.
Portugal was a Cinderella contender emerging from Group G, but the fairytale ran aground versus a far stronger Denmark squad.
A fierce match-up, New Zealand came out strong with positive real GDP and low public debt while Switzerland showed a stronger standard of living and lower unemployment. The blow that put the match into a penalty shoot-out came with Switzerland very close to tipping from inflation to deflation with a .1% inflation rate. New Zealand barely advanced thanks to an Index of Economic Freedom World Ranking of 4 versus Switzerland's 6.
Another closely contested match-up, France trailed for most of the match in terms of per capita GDP and unemployment, but took advantage of fewer living below the poverty line. Gross Fixed Investment and inflation were virtually dead-even. This match came down to a penalty shoot-out with Denmark checking in on the Index of Economic Freedom World Ranking at 9 compared to France's 64.
Did anyone really not expect these two to face off late in the Cup? The only real surprise is that the match-up occurred in the semis rather than the finals thanks to their Group selections. Australia trailed slightly in real GDP, but higher per capita GDP, lower unemployment, and a slight edge in both Gross Fixed Investment and public debt proved too much for New Zealand.
With real GDP a negative 4.3%, who could be blamed for considering Denmark a long shot to make the finals? Apart from that, however, the match-up against Australia was fairly even, with nearly identical per capita GDP and inflation figures. With the focus of this year's World Cup on sovereign debt concerns, the main deciding factor was Australia's low public debt ratio of 18.6% versus Denmark's relatively higher ratio of 38.5%.