Beyond Fannie, Freddie: Three More Problem Children?

Bennet Sedacca  Aug 21, 2008 2:00 pm

Beyond Fannie, Freddie: Three More Problem Children?
 
Assessing the health of WaMu, Lehman Brothers and Regions Financial.
 

 
While everyone focuses on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), in my opinion there are 3 other possible disasters waiting in the wings.

1. Regions Financial (RF): The company needs to raise $2 billion, says Sanford Bernstein. What are their options for doing so?

They can sell debt. The problem here is that I believe you couldn't sell debt if you wanted. The last reported trade in RF paper was 2 weeks ago, nearly +700 to the 30 year or close to 12%. The company's preferred trades at 10%. And the stock is now a 'single digit midget' near $8 a share. So, as I see it, if you could get a deal done, shareholders could get a 50% haircut.

2. Washington Mutual (WM): WaMu trades as if it's in deep trouble. Its bonds trade in the 20% range and no way can they issue a preferred.

3. Lehman Brothers (LEH): This is my favorite and sits as my 'most likely to fail' problem child. Its stock is now on its way to being a single digit midget and just stuck investors with 143,000,000 shares at $28 a share in June of this year. I don't believe many folks are willing to buy more at $12. Also, its preferred stock trades are a not awe-inspiring 16%. 

As the markets obsess over FRE/FNM, in my opinion there are many other shoes waiting to drop, and while S&P futures continue to trade with an unnatural bid, all things considered, we have not 2 but at least 5 entities on the brink.

And to be frank, I feel the actual number is likely much higher. 

I remain cautious and am concerned about the possibility the system could come unglued if we get simultaneous failures. I believe the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the next President will have the fight of their lives on their hands.

Risks are extremely high.
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Comments (7) See All Comments »
08-21-2008, 2:26 pm
I have heard this all before. In fact, it is giving me a sense of deja vu.
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08-21-2008, 3:04 pm
My apologies, I don't know how I did that. It was not my intention to post the same thing twice.
My apologies, I don't know how I did that. It was not my intention to post the same thing twice.
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08-21-2008, 4:20 pm
Bennet,

Another great round of articles.

I think this debt unwind will be one of those nice parties where they serve lots of drinks. At one corner of the table we have some new shareholders of the banks who will buy s
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08-22-2008, 12:19 am
I understand there's extreme risk out there.

That's the easy call.

What exactly is someone supposed to do when you suggest that their govt's guarantee and backing of savings accounts is suspect?
<
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08-22-2008, 12:21 am
That last word should have been 'prospects' but on second thought, 'poorspects' has a nice ring to it.
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