Op-Ed: Pay Builders Not to Build

Minyanville Staff  Sep 29, 2008 9:30 am

Op-Ed: Pay Builders Not to Build
 
Subsidizing industry may be only way to end the crisis.
 

 

Editor's Note: Mason Slaine was formerly President of Thomson Financial and is now CEO and founder of MLM Information Services, a leading business software concern. He has written and spoken widely on business and economic affairs for over 20 years. This is his first op-ed for Minyanville.

The US government is no stranger to intervening in commercial markets. For more than 50 years, the United States has helped manage agricultural prices by, among other things, Minyanville's Why Wall Street Will Never Be the Samepaying farmers not to plant various crops in order to maintain price floors.

This has worked well, and probably saved our country's role as breadbasket for the world. The government also provides similar support for many other industries through various import tariff and quota programs. Again, they're generally believed to serve good purposes.



So why not do the same thing in housing? We have too many homes for sale, and prices are being continually depressed. This in turn has led to massive failure in the financial services industry, since these homes are the collateral that banks, insurance companies, and others hold. This collateral is ripping a hole in their balance sheets and threatening to create chaos as it continually diminishes in value.


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Even today, we're building new homes at an annual rate of 500,000. Builders on average earn about $50,000 a home in gross profit. So why not pay them not to build? If the government gave the builders a subsidy of $50,000 to not build (up to 500,000 homes) it would allow the builders to maintain their infrastructure without actually having to build anything. Additionally, the government could punish builders who build anyway by taxing new homes $50,000.

This would surely hurt employment in the building trade, but it would only be needed for 12 to 18 months or so. And the most it would cost would be $25 billion - a lot less than $700 billion.

The results would be immediate. The dreaded inventory of homes for sale would decrease dramatically. The law of supply and demand would cause housing prices would stabilize and thus end the free fall in bank balance sheets as well as personal balance sheets. Thus confidence in the credit markets would return and employment would gradually uptick. After 12 to 18 months, building could resume, but would hopefully be constrained by significantly better lending practices than the craziness we've had in the past.

This is a relatively simple idea. It will, however, take courage to enact. The building trade -- which includes companies like Pulte (PHM), Ryland (RYL), Toll Brothers (TOL), and KB Homes (KBH), among others -- won't like it.

It's hard medicine - but it will work, and won't put our future generations into hock. Isn't that more important?


 
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Comments (15) See All Comments »
09-29-2008, 9:02 pm
Farmers did not get subsidies to help farmers. They got subsidies to keep production of commodities cheap. If the government had let price discovery take place, farmers would have gone off the land, prices for commodities would have skyrocketed, and
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09-29-2008, 9:35 pm
Amen.

None of the big builders did anything innovative and many did a lot to accelerate the bubble going. Like Dave said, they could have seen the demographic trends. As for immigrants, Homeland Insecurity has made it well-nigh impossi
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09-30-2008, 2:09 am
Ok so the housing market is a disaster area - in any case, based on potential earnings a sustainable housing market can probably only justify 80% of recent construction rates at best and for at least the next five years. While $700 billion will help
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09-30-2008, 5:36 pm
The many construction families who have devoted their lives to construction way of life owe you a vote of thanks. Its nice to see that people who have devoted their lives to sheltering the American people, need not worry that their way of life will
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09-30-2008, 5:58 pm
Pay builders $50K not to build?

Why don't we just pay you $50K not to post an opinion. And workers $50K not to work. And petty Thieves $50K not to steal. And Prostitutes $50K not to turn tricks. And lawyers $50K not to practice
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