Five Things You Need to Hear, the Transcript Kevin Depew Nov 24, 2008 12:00 pm |
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Cory Bortnicker: All right. We’ve got time for just one more question. Let’s talk about how people are planning their personal savings versus investments. How is the social mood sort of affecting how people are handling their own money right now?
Kevin Depew: Well, you see during peak positive social mood years, the savings rate plunged and people put that money in riskier and riskier ventures. And that was because there was a general feeling of optimism. And that optimism translates into increased risk-taking behavior.
We are now at a point where social mood has begun to turn more negative, and so there is an increasing risk aversion, and following upon that is going to be an increase in savings. I think we’ll see the personal savings rate in this country go from about zero percent, maybe to as high as 8 to 10 percent, which would have significant consequences for the economy in terms of consumer spending. We’ve already seen new lows in consumer spending in reports that came out over the past week. That’s going to continue in 2009, and savings is going to be the operative word.
Another example. There’s a great television host that I think is very entertaining. His name is Dave Ramsey, and he preaches the elimination of debt, avoiding credit cards, destroying your credit cards, living within your means, saving money and only spending what you earn. And if you don’t earn it, then save it, and when you save enough then you buy it if you want it.
Well, that’s an interesting message, but here’s the reality about Dave Ramsey. He’s been preaching that message for about 15 years now. that's how long he's had a radio show. And so the question is, has he just somehow become better at disseminating his message of getting out of debt and saving, or is it the case that social mood has turned and he’s in the right place where social mood begins to seek out people who are preaching that message?
That’s what I think is going on. And there is no disrespect intended toward Dave Ramsey. He’s very entertaining, but my argument is he’s just as entertaining today as he was eight years ago, or ten years ago. And the only thing that’s changed is that social mood is in a place where a larger pool of people are beginning to embrace and accept that message of risk aversion, saving versus consumption and risk taking.
Cory Bortnicker: All right. Well, thank you very much, Kevin, for your time and our discussion today. Thank you for listening, and come back next week for more 5 Things You Need To Hear.
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