Another agricultural commodity I think will benefit from this theme is the soybean market. This chart looks similar to corn; again, I would use the 200-week moving average as an ideal entry/support point.

I would buy soybeans in the mid to low 800s; I think they have 50% upside from the 800’s up into the 1200 level.


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There's been a lot of talk recently about the bond market being the next big bubble. Ultimately I agree, but the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.

I do think interest rates will eventually have to move higher, but it's tough to fight the government. The best way to play the short side in bonds here would be the TBT, which is an ultrashort long-term bond ETF. It looks like you could take a shot on the long side here on the TBT in the mid 30s; confirmation of a low being in would be retaking the 20-day moving average near 40.

However, this is obviously a bottom pick - and I’m usually not a fan of catching falling knives. You're probably safer waiting for confirmation of an uptrend before trying to pick the low. Be careful with this one.


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I hope this provides you with some investment ideas for 2009. While near term I think equities could have a great rally, it will ultimately be a rally of the countertrend bear-market variety; equities should remain a challenged asset class.

On the other hand, people will always need to eat and drink water, so I feel fairly safe investing in asset classes that will benefit from population growth.

2008 was a very successful year for those who followed my recommendations, and frankly it will be much more difficult to find such great risk/reward opportunities in the near future. However, one of my New Year’s resolutions is to contribute more frequently to Minyanville. and -- if my belief that 2009 will be the ultimate trader’s market holds true -- I will be able to help you tactically trade and navigate the markets to make 2009 a much better year than 2008.

Best wishes to all for a very happy and healthy new year!