Jeff Saut: Rally Till Spring? MV Respect Mar 16, 2009 10:11 am |
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“The 4 ‘scorched earth’ likely survivors for a package (in case I'm wrong on one of them) are: Ruth’s Hospitality Group (RUTH); Morton’s (MRT); Carrols (TAST); and O’Charley’s (CHUX). Each company has high leverage - but at very manageable levels, if cash flow remains anywhere near the current run rate. These are strong brands with very long-term histories, recently restructured credit agreements, and large private equity ownership, so the ultimate backstop is they can get equity to retire debt as a last resort.
"The last option, of private equity, only becomes necessary in a true soft-depression scenario (e.g., if total restaurant demand goes from the current down 3-5% to something like down 15% quickly). Once valuations normalize, these are likely $5-7 stocks, and perhaps $10+, as each has $1.00 EPS power and sustained expansion potential in an economic recovery.”
As for the overall stock market, while it's still too early to tell if this is a bear-market rally or something more, I agree with The Chart Store: “While our sense is that the rally has more to go on the upside in the weeks to come, we feel it is still too early to say the final bottom has been put in place.”
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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