Jeff Saut: Rally Till Spring?

MV Respect  Mar 16, 2009 10:11 am

Jeff Saut: Rally Till Spring?
 
Upswing could continue - If the velocity of money slows.
 

 
The call for this week: Republic Services (RSG) and Digital Reality (DLR) both have 4% dividend yields - worth noting. And this speculative idea from my firm's restaurant analyst, Bryan Elliott, is intriguing:

“The 4 ‘scorched earth’ likely survivors for a package (in case I'm wrong on one of them) are: Ruth’s Hospitality Group (RUTH); Morton’s (MRT); Carrols (TAST); and O’Charley’s (CHUX). Each company has high leverage - but at very manageable levels, if cash flow remains anywhere near the current run rate. These are strong brands with very long-term histories, recently restructured credit agreements, and large private equity ownership, so the ultimate backstop is they can get equity to retire debt as a last resort.

"The last option, of private equity, only becomes necessary in a true soft-depression scenario (e.g., if total restaurant demand goes from the current down 3-5% to something like down 15% quickly). Once valuations normalize, these are likely $5-7 stocks, and perhaps $10+, as each has $1.00 EPS power and sustained expansion potential in an economic recovery.”

As for the overall stock market, while it's still too early to tell if this is a bear-market rally or something more, I agree with The Chart Store: “While our sense is that the rally has more to go on the upside in the weeks to come, we feel it is still too early to say the final bottom has been put in place.”

20 of 22 (91%) found this helpful
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Comments (8) See All Comments »
03-16-2009, 3:52 pm

John,

Do you really believe that giving more tax breaks to the rich is the answer?

CEOs were already making 400 times the average worker the past few years. It is this lack of shame that I believe accounts, to a larg
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03-16-2009, 4:05 pm
This column is very similar to his other columns when we were plumbing the depths. Anything can happen and this rally could go on for some time, but just as easily could be topping already. There is very little mention in these articles of the credit
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03-16-2009, 5:26 pm
I think you overlook my point. Business realized 10 years ago or more, that in order to sell goods to developing countries, that had lower cost structures, the cost of production would have to be lower than it is here in the US. So a lot of manu
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03-16-2009, 5:48 pm

There really is only one solution. The salaries, wages and benefits in Asia (and the third world countries) must come up so they can afford to become consumers and the salaries, wages and benefits in the United States have to come down so we
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03-16-2009, 10:55 pm
"“So could the US consumer, buoyed by lower energy prices (putting $400bn back in his pocket), lower taxes ($300bn coming his way) and lower mortgage rates ($200bn coming his way) finally be finding a footing?"

Do you
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