Technical Indicators Scream Caution Mike Mish Shedlock Apr 27, 2009 9:05 am |
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Let's take a look:
Bullish Percent Index (BPI)
"A market breadth indicator calculated by dividing the number of stocks in a given group -- currently trading with Point and Figure buy signals -- by the total number of stocks in that group. Bullish Percent levels over 70% are considered overbought; levels below 30% are considered oversold. Strong buy signals occur when the Index falls below 30%, then reverses up by at least 6%. Conversely, promising sell signals occur when it goes above 70%, then reverses down by at least 6%."McClellan Oscillator
"A breadth indicator derived from each day's net advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues. Subtracting the 39-day exponential moving average from the 19-day exponential moving average of net advances forms the oscillator.
"Usually, readings above +100 are considered overbought and below -100 oversold. Buy signals are generated when the oscillator advances from oversold levels to positive territory. Sell signals are generated on declines from overbought to negative territory... A series of rising troughs would denote strength, while a series of declining peaks weakness."
Record High Percent Index
"A market breadth indicator created by dividing the number of 52-week highs for a given market by the sum of the number of new highs and the number of new lows.
Record High Percent = New Highs / (New Highs + New Lows)
The values range between 0.0 and 1.0. A value of 0.0 means that there were no new highs on that day. A value of 1.0 means that there were no new lows on that day. A value of 0.5 means that the number of new highs and new lows were equal."
$BPSPX - S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index
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$BPCOMPQ - Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index
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$BPNYA - NYSE Bullish Percent Index
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$BPTRAN - Dow Jones Transports Bullish Percent Index
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$BPFINA- S&P Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index
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$NAMO - Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator
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$NYMO - NYSE McClellan Oscillator
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$RHSPX - S&P 500 Record High Percent Index
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$RHNYA - NYSE Record High Percent Index
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$RHCOMPQ - Nasdaq Record High Percent Index
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Please remember these indicators aren't a precise timing device. Nor do they indicate the magnitude of a move. They do, however, indicate direction - and, in this case, a potential change in direction.
The key point to note is these and many other similar indicators are flashing warning signs saying: This rally is getting very long in the tooth. With that in mind, bulls may wish to consider reviewing their risk-reward setups and stop-loss positions.
Bears who haven't been blown out of the water may have an opportunity at hand.

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