Missed Opportunities Minyanville Staff Nov 25, 2008 9:45 am |
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His mind went back to the market. Was this the right moment to close all positions, accept losses and move on to searching for new opportunities? Was this only a rebound or the beginning of a new sustained trend? Which stocks would be the runners this time? He didn't know, but maybe she represented another chance that night.
He hadn't seen the lady since, but every minute spent with her was sharp in his memory. It was made of moments. Short messages. Signals. Contacts. Complicity.
One day, he finally asked her, "How are you doing with the lucky man?"
"Well, he left his wife eventually," she said. "He was so good to apply a stop loss, right as you said. We live together, now."
It was a missed train. Once again. It had happened to him many times before: Watching prices go higher and follow them up day after day without having the courage to push the button to buy. He couldn't follow the crowd and momentum, preferring instead to wait for a pullback that would never come.
He knew he had to seize that opportunity. He wasn't able to make the kind of fast, instinctive decisions typical of big traders. And actually he wasn't a big trader. Not at all. There had been some kind of attraction. Only it wasn't the right moment, the right place. The same expectations. She was gone now.
He tried to recreate the atmosphere of their first date. It was like averaging a position at a lower price in a bear market instead of closing the trade to cut your loss: You would never break even. In the same way, he would never manage to rebuild the same excitement, the same feelings. The same curiosity to explore their boundaries.
Trust and confidence weren't there any more. Things had changed, just as cycles can change quickly and at any moment in the markets. He realized it too late. Both as an investor and a man. It was his nature. In every situation there were the same patterns. He gave up - and not soon enough to avoid getting hurt..
He was watching CNBC in an airport lounge at Dulles, waiting for his next flight. Markets were plunging to multi-year lows in a wave of panic. It was November 20th. Suddenly, he recalled the lady he met in Sorrento. He hadn't talked to her again since the summer. He was getting to a critical stage now. He was still hoping to improve his relationship, but he and his wife were close to an irreversible point of no return. He asked himself, Can my relationship survive this phase? What happened to the lucky man?
There was something he forgot to tell her: The ever-changing nature of markets makes them the most fascinating expression of social behavior. They continuously surprise investors with great trends and sudden reversals. In the same way, the dynamics of a relationship are so complex and quite unpredictable. That's why, from the ashes of a panic selling the most irresistible rally may arise. And after a sell-off a new trend will eventually emerge.
He didn't know at the time he would meet her again.
The blossoming flowers and the sea reflections were glowing in an unusually warm evening. The view of the bay was breathtaking from the terrace of the hotel. He was wandering in a multicolored crowd drinking and chatting loudly. Sensing something familiar, he turned. There was a lady in Sorrento wearing a pink dress at a party that night.
A moment later she was gone forever.
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