Trading Radar: Volatility Expected in Report-Packed Week Ahead

By Michael Sedacca  APR 25, 2014 4:36 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

 


Friday ended on a negative note as investors de-risked their portfolios ahead of a weekend that has the potential for further escalation in the Ukraine crisis. The governments of the UK, eurozone, and US all either voted to increase sanctions against Russia or hinted strongly that they were preparing to do so. Russia also suffered a credit rating downgrade from S&P, and its central bank did a surprise 50-basis-point rate hike. The Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) was the worst-performing US index in today's session, led by a serious reversal in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) following its earnings report last night.

Next week will be extremely busy on the economic front, which should lead to a lot of volatility in US risk assets. On Wednesday, the advance estimate of US first-quarter GDP will be released, in addition to the results of the Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary policy. Other events to note are the April nonfarm payrolls report (scheduled to be released next Friday) and the national ISM manufacturing index (next Thursday). Perhaps investors should contemplate going long on Alka-Seltzer?

Economists estimate that first-quarter GDP will rise at a quarterly annualized rate of 1.2%, down from the 2.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2013. If that growth rate were to be realized, real GDP will have risen 2.61% from a year ago. March consumer spending is scheduled to be reported next Thursday, which will affect the initial GDP estimate.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow by a net 210,000 jobs in April, faster than the 192,000 reported last month. Consumer confidence surveys have been increasingly positive this month, despite the sharp drop in many popular stocks, which suggests that job growth during the month was strong. The monthly average for jobless claims in the month is 311,700 to date, an improvement over the 321,000 average for March. During the survey week (ending April 11), jobless claims were at their second-lowest reading in seven years. However, an estimate of 210,000 fully reflects the positivity that we've seen in the previously mentioned economic data.

The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise to 54.2 for April, up from 53.7 in March. Regional surveys for the month have been upbeat to this point, with strong growth in new orders and production in most areas. The most important regional survey, Chicago's, is due to be reported next Wednesday.

The FOMC meeting will conclude next Wednesday morning and a statement will be released at 2:00 p.m. EDT. It's highly unlikely that the Fed will not choose to reduce another $10 billion in monthly asset purchases, as it has done in its last three meetings. Because economic activity has been constant since its last meeting in mid-March, it's doubtful that the committee will make any seismic change in its outlook. The meeting won't feature a press conference or economic projections update, so the odds of anything new being released are low.

Canada and the UK will also release their advance first-quarter GDP reports next week. The real highlight of the week will be the advance April eurozone consumer price index on Wednesday. If the report falls below the 0.8% year-on-year rate expected, it will give the ECB the necessary ammunition to ease monetary conditions at its May 8 meeting.

Earnings season continues next week at full pace. Among many notable reports are Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), Coach (NYSE:COH), US Steel (NYSE:X), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), MasterCard (NYSE:MA), and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD).

Monday, April 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM - expected 0.8%, prior -0.8%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY - exp -10.2%, prior -10.2%
10:30 Dallas Fed - exp 6.0, prior 4.9
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b notes in 6 to 7-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 3-month, $23b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Retail Sales
CNY Leading Index

Earnings
 
Before:
Corning (GLW)
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Charter Communications (CHTR)

After:
Questcor Pharma (QCOR)
Range Resources (RRC)
Herbalife (HLF)
NetSuite (N)
American Capital Agency Corp (AGNC)
 
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

Tuesday, April 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20-City MoM Home Prices (Feb) - expected 0.7%, prior 0.85%
09:00 S&P/CS YoY - exp 13.00%, prior 13.24%
10:00 Consumer Confidence Index (Apr) - exp 83.0, prior 82.3
11:00 Fed to purchase $2b-$2.5b bonds in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25b 52-week, and 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $15b 2-year FRN
 
Fedspeak
 
11:45am Former Fed Chair Bernanke speaks in Toronto

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD Trade Balance
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
08:30 GBP GDP (1Q advance)
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Apr final)
12:00 EUR German CPI (April prelim)

Earnings

Before:
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Cummins (CMI)
Merck (MRK)
MGM Resorts (MGM)
AGCO (AGCO)
Martin Marieta Materials (MLM)
Valero Energy (VLO)
CIT Group (CIT)
HCA Holdings (HCA)
Sprint (S)
McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI)
 
After:
Marriot (MAR)
Aflac (AFL)
US Steel (X)
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Express Scripts Holdings (ESRX)
eBay (EBAY)
Riverbed (RVBD)
Twitter (TWTR)
Hertz (HTZ)
3D Systems (DDD)
Coach (COH)

Wednesday, April 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 ADP Private Payrolls - expected 210K, prior 191K
08:30 Employment Cost Index (1Q) - exp 0.5%, prior 0.5%
08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ (1Q advance) - exp 1.2%, prior 2.6%
08:30 Personal Consumption - exp 1.9%, prior 3.3%
08:30 GDP Price Index - exp 1.5%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ - exp 1.2%, prior 1.3%
09:00 ISM Milwaukee - prior 56.03
09:45 Chicago PMI (Apr) - exp 56.5, prior 55.9
2:00 FOMC Rate Decision
3:30pm Former Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking in Washington

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Industrial Production (Mar prelim)
JPY Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales
07:00 EUR Spanish GDP (1Q prelim)
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (Apr)
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI (Apr)
12:30 CAD GDP (Feb)

Earnings

Before:
Hess (HES)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Dominion Resources (D)
International Paper (IP)
Exelon (EXC)
Time Warner (TWX)
Wellpoint (WLP)
Southern Co (SO)
 
After:
Western Digital (WDC)
Tesoro (TSO)
Shutterfly (SFLY)
Metlife (MET)
Ruckus Wireless (RKUS)
Yelp (YELP)
Level 3 Communications (LVLT)

Thursday, May 1
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:30 Challenger Job Cuts YoY - prior -30.2%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims -  expected 320K, prior 329K
08:30 Continuing Claims -  exp 2710K, prior 2680K
08:30 Personal Income - exp 0.4%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Personal Spending - exp 0.6%, prior 0.3%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY - exp 1.2%, prior 0.9%
08:30 PCE Core YoY - exp 1.2%, prior 1.1%
09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Final - initial 55.4
10:00 ISM Manufacturing - exp 54.2, prior 53.7
10:00 ISM Prices Paid - exp 59.5, prior 59.0
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales - exp 12.80M, prior 12.78M
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales - exp 16.20M, prior 16.33M
 
Fedspeak
 
8:30am Yellen (dove, chair) to speak in Washington
 
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Consumer Credit

Earnings

Before:
Avon Products (AVP)
Clorox (CLX)
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Beazer Homes (BZR)
Walter Energy (WLT)
Iron Mountain (IRM)
Ocwen Financial (OCN)
Mastercard (MA)
T-Mobile (TMUS)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Marathon Petroleum (MRO)
Legg Mason (LM)
American Tower (AMT)
Kellogg (K)
 
After:
Kraft Foods (KRFT)
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG)
Tempur Sealy (TPX)
Expedia (EXPE)
OpenTable (OPEN)
 
Stillwater Mining (SWC)
BioMarin Pharma (BMRN)
Akamai (AKAM)
LinkedIn (LNKD)
Viacom (VIA)

Friday, May 2

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - expected 210K, prior 192K
08:30 Private Payrolls - exp 210K, prior 192K
08:30 Manufacturing Payrolls - exp 5K, prior -1K
08:30 Unemployment Rate - exp 6.6%, prior 6.7%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY - exp 2.1%, prior 2.1%
10:00 Factory Orders - exp 1.5%, prior 1.6%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
JPY Employment Change (Mar)
08:30 EUR Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Construction PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Earnings

Before:
Chevron (CVC)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Madison Square Garden (MSG)
KCG Holdings (KCG)



Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.