Next month marks the three-year anniversary of the bear market in silver that started in May 2011. Later this summer we will hit the three-year anniversaries of the bear markets in gold and gold stocks. We are now psychologically conditioned for pain and punishment in the gold markets and to beware of the next downward plunge.
In reality though, gold has been in a basing phase. It's not going down anymore; it's going sideways where the downward plunges are muted and the upward rallies are still fake bear market rallies
. What's interesting about this base is that it started right at the height of bearishness in the gold market. That two-day massacre in gold back in April 2013 when gold plunged below $1,400 actually started the left-hand side of the base. So right when everyone was panicking about gold, in reality it was starting to form a major bottom!
Just a couple months later after trying and failing to get back above $1,400, gold made the low point in the base in June of 2013 around $1,200. Gold then tried once again to get back above $1,400, but then failed and retested the bottom of the base in December 2013. So a well-established base formed in gold between $1,200 and $1,400 as you can see in the chart below.
Once gold held support again in December 2013 it rallied back to $1,400 just last month, but then failed again and was turned back down to where it is today. So gold has been basing now for about a year between $1,200 and $1,400. Notice, though, in the previous chart, the 30-week moving average has flattened out, and gold has now traded back above the 30-week moving average. Stan Weinstein, author of one of the best books ever
on trend trading, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
, would call this a Stage 1 base
Gold stocks have done essentially the same thing as gold. They started forming the left-hand side of a base in April 2013, then traded mostly sideways for the rest of the year. Some of the gold stocks went on to make lower lows during the rest of 2013, but most of the damage had been done by the April-June time frame.
Taking a look a the Junior Gold Miners ETF
(NYSEARCA:GDXJ), notice how the 30-week moving average has flattened out just like it has in gold. After going back and reading what Weinstein said about Stage 1 bases recently, I noticed this quote, which might relate to what we are seeing in the gold stocks today:
But often volume will start to expand late in Stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any significant price concession. This is a favorable indication.
Notice the tremendous increase in volume in GDXJ since the start of 2014. As Weinstein says, this is an indication that buyers and sellers have reached equilibrium. So after a yearlong base in gold and gold stocks, what were are looking for next is the breakout into a Stage 2 advance.
The ideal buy point, according to Weinstein, is when gold would break out above the resistance of its base and above the 30-week moving average on above-average volume. This would indicate buyers have taken back control of the gold market and a new bull market in gold
is going to begin. Weinstein notes that there is often a retest of the breakout point during which a second-chance opportunity arises to do low-risk buying.
Check out what the solar stocks did from April 2012 to April 2013. They had a similar basing period to the current gold market. The Guggenheim Solar ETF
(NYSEARCA:TAN) based for about a year then broke out of the base on an increase in volume in May 2013. Then TAN retested the base toward the end of June 2013, and from there broke back into the Stage 2 advance that is still ongoing today. This is a great example of Stage Analysis in action.
So the bottom line is, gold is in a basing phase, and this has been going on for about a year since April 2013. According to Stage Analysis the ideal buy point would be the breakout above $1,400 on an increase in volume, or on a retest of $1,400 after a breakout occurs.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published on NextBigTrade.com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.