The monthly chart for the Australian dollar has a three-wave move into a 1x1 measurement up from the 2001 low. We have left the Fibonacci extension levels on the chart so readers can see how price has behaved at each level up from 2008. We also have added the Wave59 "nine-five study," which had been signaling exhaustion on the monthly time frame from mid-2011 to April 2013. (When it returns certain values such as 5, 9, 4* and 8*, it indicates that a move is probably approaching exhaustion.)
Our assumption here is that the Australian dollar is in the early stages of a retrace down from the high of April 2013. The first test of this idea should come within the next few weeks, as we see whether the 0.9091 resistance level holds and turns the market lower.
The daily chart below shows a possible Elliott wave count that could soon lead to an acceleration lower. Even if this count is correct, wave (ii) doesn't have to be finished yet. It could go back to test the resistance level shown. In fact, the sideways/down move of recent days looks corrective, so traders probably should expect another attempt to reach the 0.9091 resistance level.
This article originally appeared on Trading on the Mark.
No positions in stocks mentioned.