Trading Radar: Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Kick Off Financial Sector Earnings Next Week

By Michael Sedacca  JAN 10, 2014 3:55 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

 


The S&P 500 (INDEXSP.INX) had a generally lackluster week, closing up only a few points and trading within a relatively tight range. Although the ADP private payrolls figure was quite strong, Friday's government-released nonfarm payrolls report left much to be desired. The December 2013 FOMC minutes that were released on Wednesday caused the interest rate market to fight back against the Fed's forward guidance.

In Friday's release of the December 2013 nonfarm payrolls, job growth for the month was reported to be 74,000 -- below the lowest economist estimate of 100,000. As a result, more emphasis will be placed on next Tuesday's December 2013 retail sales report. Thus far, retailers' comparable sales reports from the month of December and/or the fourth quarter have been very poor. However, online sales appear very robust, which may balance out the poor in-store sales. Retailers that do not derive the majority of their sales from their physical stores may not have been as badly impacted as some of their competitors.

A number of Fed officials will be giving speeches this week. These will be the last public comments by Fed members before they go into a blackout ahead of the January 29 meeting. Notably, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak. Undoubtedly, all of the economic data set to be released this coming week will play an increasingly important role as investors try to ascertain how strong the 2013 holiday season was. It is unlikely that the Fed will be swayed by one data point -- the December nonfarm payrolls, which is clearly an outlier -- as it winds down its extraordinary measures, but figuring out its intentions should be a focal point in the week ahead.

The other US reports to note for the week will be the December 2013 consumer price index and producer price index, and the Fed's Beige Book. The Fed's contacts in the business world are well placed, so it will be valuable to see what they have been saying about the economy and financial space. Consumer and producer price inflation was stubbornly low throughout 2013, and that trend does not look like it will change after 1.8% year-over-year wage growth in December.

There will be few global data reports released in the coming week. Of note are the German and eurozone consumer price indices on Thursday. Additionally, Australia will report its employment situation on the same day, and the UK will release retail sales next Friday.

Fourth-quarter earnings reports will begin to accelerate with Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) kicking things off in the financial sector. Other notable reports for the week include Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), American Express (NYSE:AXP), General Electric (NYSE:GE), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).

Monday, January 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

2:00 Treasury Budget Statement (Dec) – expected $44B, prior -$135.2B
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $28b 3-month, $26b 6-month bills
 
Fedspeak
 
12:40 p.m. Lockhart speaks in Atlanta

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Home Loans

Earnings
 
No major reports scheduled

Tuesday, January 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – expected 93.0, prior 92.5
08:30 Advance Retail Sales – exp 0.1%, prior 0.7%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto – exp 0.4%, prior 0.4%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas – exp 0.4%, prior 0.6%
08:30 Import Price Index MoM – exp 0.3%, prior -0.6%
10:00 Business Inventories – exp 0.3%, prior 0.7%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
 
Fedspeak
 
12:45pm Plosser speaks in Philadelphia
1:20pm Fisher speaks in Dallas

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Trade Balance
CNY Foreign Direct Investment
09:30 GBP PPI & CPI
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production

Earnings

Before:
JPMorgan (JPM)
Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wednesday, January 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Empire Manufacturing – expected 3.5, prior 0.98
08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – exp 1.2%, prior 0.7%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – exp 1.3%, prior 1.3%
2:00 Fed Beige Book
11:00 Fed buying $4b-$5b notes in 4.5 to 5.5-year range
 
Fedspeak
 
12:50pm Evans speaks in Iowa
5:45pm Lockhart speaks in Atlanta

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (preliminary Dec)
08:00 EUR German 2013 GDP YoY
08:15 CHF Retail Sales
14:00 CAD Existing Home Sales

Earnings

Before:
Bank of America (BAC)
Fastenal (FAST)
 
After:
CSX (CSX)

Thursday, January 16

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY – expected 1.5%, prior 1.2%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – exp 1.7%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – exp 325K, prior 330K
08:30 Continuing Claims – exp 2850K, prior 2865K
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $194.9B
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – prior $35.4B
10:00 Philly Fed – exp 8.5, prior 7.0
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – exp 58, prior 58
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
 
Fedspeak
 
9:15am Williams speaks in Washington
11:10am Bernanke speaks in Washington

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Machine Orders
00:30 AUD Employment Change
07:00 EUR German CPI (final estimate)
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
 
9:30am Spain selling bonds

Earnings

Before:
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
BB&T (BBT)
UnitedHealth (UNH)
Huntington Banc (HBAN)
Blackrock (BLK)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Citigroup (C)
 
After:
Capital One (COF)
American Express (AXP)
Intel (INTC)
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
Sallie Mae (SLM)
PNC Financial (PNC)

Friday, January 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Housing Starts – expected 992K, prior 1091K
08:30 Building Permits – exp 1014K, prior 1017K
09:15 Industrial Production MoM – exp 0.3%, prior 1.1%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – exp 79.1%, prior 79.0%
09:15 Manufacturing Production – exp 0.3%, prior 0.6%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (first estimate) – exp 83.5, prior 82.5
10:00 JOLTs Job Openings – prior 3925
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
 
Fedspeak
 
12:30pm Lacker speaks in Richmond, VA

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:30 GBP Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Eurozone Construction Output

Earnings

Before:
General Electric (GE)
SunTrust Banks (STI)
Bank of NY Mellon (BK)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Schlumberger (SLB)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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