Trading Radar: How Much Consumers Spent on Black Friday Will Be Revealed Next Week

By Michael Sedacca  DEC 06, 2013 4:20 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

 


The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) averted its first down week since September on Friday, thanks to a strong positive day in the index. The November nonfarm payrolls report was good, but not too good, which helped buoy most assets. Heading into next week, the economic calendar is much lighter.

The highlight of the coming week is the November retail sales report on Thursday.  Before Black Friday last week, retailers had cautioned about a slower holiday season than in years past. Thus far, those concerns look to be proven correct after initial spending reports from the National Retailer Federation (NRF) showed drops in both average spending per consumer and overall purchases. Economists estimate that retail sales rose 0.6% in November from the prior month.

The other notable report for the upcoming week is Friday's producer price index. It is very likely that producer and consumer prices reached a cycle low in October given the recent increases in crude, gasoline, and natural gas prices. Economists expect the year-over-year rate to accelerate to 0.8% from 0.3% in October.

The global calendar is going to be much more full. Germany and China will release consumer price indices early in the week. Additionally, Germany, Japan, and the UK will release industrial production activity for November. Lastly, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to give a speech in an EU Parliament debate next Thursday.

On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC will meet next Thursday to discuss the implementation of the Volcker rule. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is also set to update Congress on the progress of Dodd/Frank regulations.

The notable earnings reports for the week will be from Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Joy Global (NYSE:JOY), and Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN).

Monday, December 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

12:00 Household Change in Net Worth 3Q – prior +$1.342trln
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $27b 6-month bills
02:00 Fed buying $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7.5 to 10-year range
 
Fedspeak
 
01:05pm Bullard speaking in St. Louis
02:15pm Fisher speaking in Chicago

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY 3Q GDP (final estimate)
JPY Trade Balance
01:30 CNY CPI & PPI
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
08:15 CHF Retail Sales
09:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production

Earnings
 
After:
PVH Corp (PVH)
Vail Resorts (MTN)

Tuesday, December 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – expected 92.6, prior 91.6
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings – prior 3913
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – exp 0.3%, prior 0.4%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills, $25b 52-week bills
01:00 Treasury selling $30b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY New Yuan Loans
00:30 AUD Home Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
05:30 CNY Industrial Production
05:30 CNY Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Industrial and Manufacturing Production
09:30 GBP Trade Balance
10:00 EUR Italian GDP
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
23:50 JPY Machine Orders
12:00pm ECB’s Draghi speaks in Rome

Earnings

Before:
Autozone (AZO)
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Burlington Stores (BURL)
 
After:
H&R Block (HRB)
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)

Wednesday, December 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
2:00 Monthly Budget Statement – exp -$154.5B, prior -$91.6B
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $21b 10-year notes (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR German CPI
10:30am Germany selling EU5b 2-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Joy Global (JOY)
Costco (COST)
 
After:
Men’s Wearhouse (MW)

Thursday, December 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Advance Retail Sales – exp 0.6%, prior 0.4%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto – exp 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30 Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas – exp 0.3%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Import Price Index MoM – exp -0.8%, prior -0.7%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – exp 318K, prior 298K
08:30 Continuing Claims – exp 2764K, prior 2744K
10:00 Business Inventories – exp 0.3%, prior 0.6%
11:00 Fed buying $3b-$4b notes in 6 to 7-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds (1st reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
NZD Reserve Bank Rate Decision
00:30 AUD Employment Change
04:30 JPY Industrial Production
08:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
13:30 CAD New Home Prices
8:00am Draghi speaks in EU Parliament debate

Earnings

Before:
Ciena (CIEN)

Friday, December 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – expected 0.8%, prior 0.3%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – exp 1.4%, prior 1.4%
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

GBP Construction Output

Earnings

No major reports scheduled

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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