All day and every day, some of the stock market's best and brightest traders and money managers share their ideas, insights, and analysis in real time on Minyanville's Buzz & Banter.
Here is a small sampling of the 120+ posts seen on the Buzz & Banter this week:
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Morning Minyans! I wanted to let those following my Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA) trade from last week know that I took profit on my calls this morning when the stock was trading around $139, almost $20 higher from where we pointed out the potential for a rally last Wednesday
. I still think Tesla could run up to $145, but I'm not going to pick up pennies in front of this steamroller. Now that my eW4 target zone has been acquired, I'll be looking for short entries targeting $100 by the end of the year. I'll update you all accordingly after the adrenalin wears off.
Click to enlarge
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Michael A. Gayed
Good luck out there!
Weight Watchers Wedgie!
I'm still watching Weight Watchers
(NYSE:WTW) to see if it progresses as it should. So far, so good: Double bottom (check), establishing a range (check). It just continues to see accumulation down here and looks to set up for a pop toward the 50-day. I have also noticed that we are getting a nice and tight wedge down here. This is setting us up for a nice risk versus reward play as we can use the lower line as your sell stop and could even use a tier system. For example: Take a half position while in the wedge. If it breaks above the upper line, add the other half and play the momentum. When the momentum starts to wane, sell the second half and use a trailing stop on the first half.
This type of method allows you to do the following:
1. Get engaged without full risk
2. Push into full risk when the odds are in your favor
3. Then take some off for a profit
4. Continue to ride if it goes higher
I like this type of strategy particularly because of how it allows you to manage emotions. If the trade goes against you, you can say "at least I didn't have a full position." If the trade goes for you, you are booking gains along the way, and you don't have the "Why am I not in it!" moment.
I just wanted to share a little more of some of my trading strategies. I hope it helps!
Sentiment data continues to get more extreme and is the biggest impediment to further gains in U.S. equities. The Investors Intelligence sentiment poll released this morning showed the fewest number of Bears (14.3%) since March of 1987 and the highest number of Bulls (57.1%) since April of 2011. The spread between Bulls and Bears of 42.8% is now firmly in the danger zone. While this doesn't guarantee a crash, it does suggest caution is warranted. As the table below indicates, the average 52-week return following a Bull-Bear spread of over 40% has been only 1.6% versus an 8.3% return in all time periods. Heading into 2014, then, what needs to be tapered are expectations.
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Friday, December 6, 2013
GDX Big Bullish Backtest?
Yesterday, we sent a daily Market Vectors Gold Miners
(NYSEARCA:GDX) chart showing a possible big bullish backtest. See here
A stab up though 22 with authority, especially on the important Friday
weekly closing basis, suggests that notion is playing out.
A 10-min GDX from Wednesday
through this morning shows that GDX tested Wednesday's lows in pre-open action and is turning up.
Below, see a GDX chart.
If you're waiting for the logic of a potential stronger economy and higher rates to justify higher gold don't bother. Gold has been down for 2 years in the face of a fiat orgy.
All markets have their own internal clock. And at the end of the day, the wheels within wheels inside that clock are cyclical, not fundamental.
To wit, this week is straight across and opposite 1921, the record high on gold.
Click to enlarge
Taking Down GSV Capital
I just took down a slug of GSV Capital
(NASDAQ:GSVC), a publicy-traded technology investment fund. I'll give a hat tip to TechStrat author Sean Udall
who's been discussing the huge discount to NAV.
GSV is trading at about $10.36, which is a 22% to its last reported NAV of $13.26. However, that was as of September 30. Since then, Twitter
(TNYSE:WTR), which accounted for 17.6% of assets then, came public and added at least $2+ per share in NAV, which more than offsets the disappointing performance of holdings Chegg
(LON:CHGG) and Violin Memory
Additionally, as Sean pointed out recently, GSV has big stakes in two pre-IPO properties: Dropbox, which is going to be an absolute monster deal, and Palantir Technologies, which just raised money at a huge valuation.
So while GSV is uber-risky considering that it is heavily concentrated in Twitter and Facebook
(NASDAQ:FB), and holds so many relatively illiquid stakes in private companies, the risk-reward looks pretty good here.
I'd also point out that GSV has taken a huge nosedive while tech stocks, including social media names, have been doing just fine.
Check out the chart below, which shows a comparison between GSV and the social media ETF
(NASDAQ:SOCL). Either the IPO market's about to die or GSV's got some catching up to do. I'm speculating on the latter.
Click to enlarge
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