Today's release of jobless claims for the latest week showed a smaller than expected decline. While economists were expecting claims to fall down to 340K from last week's reading of 362K, the actual decline was 10K less than expected, coming in at a level of 350K. Going forward, we should continue to see claims drift lower as the impact of the government shutdown wears off.
Although claims dropped this week, the four-week moving average rose by nearly 11K to 348.3K. Unless we see a large drop in the weekly number next week (back below 308K), we will see this level increase once again in the coming week.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (NSA) jobless claims posted a large decline of 49.9K this week. While it is common for claims to drop during the current week of the year, the decline we saw this year was pretty large on a relative basis. With the decline, this week's NSA level was the lowest for the current week of the year since 2007, and well below the historical average of 347.3K since 2000.
This article was originally published by Bespoke Investment Group.
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