Yesterday saw bears capitulate en masse, while bulls trampled and gored everyone who got in their way in the hopes that Washington's issues might get resolved soon. As far as I've heard, nothing actually got resolved -- but perception is reality in the market.
As I talked about yesterday, the market had reached the toughest type of inflection point in Elliott Wave, and from there, it then proceeded to plow right over my preferred near-term count. Most of the traders I've spoken to since the close are now bullish. And why not? After all, the market has had a persistent bid ever since the QE-Infinity liquidity started pouring into the primary dealers' accounts, and every halfway promising-looking decline of 2013 has turned into a new high in fairly short order.
The rally appeared to be impulsive, which suggests it isn't over yet, and normally, I'd look for another leg of equal or greater length. However, I'm favoring an unconventional near-term count which I'll outline momentarily.
Frankly, I'm a bit uncomfortable with this market right now. There are times the charts make perfect sense to me, and there are other times that there are portions of the wave count that I can't comfortably reconcile. When I look at the charts right now, there are two conflicting things that jump out at me:
1. The decline from the all-time high reconciles better as an impulse than a correction, and that leads me to suspect it's not over.
2. The signals I saw at the close on Wednesday led me to expect a snapback rally, but that rally's strength exceeded my expectations. Yesterday's rally was a face-ripper, and bulls recovered a ton of lost ground in just one day -- normally, that suggests they have "money in the mattress" (or in the printing press, as the case may be) for more.
It's probably going to take an event to turn this market back down. In my opinion, the charts are still hinting at the idea that we could
get one. But this is as much an instinct call as anything, and trying to predict an event is like trying to predict the winning lotto numbers, so feel free to ignore me and trade what feels right to you.
First up is the Philadelphia Bank Index
(INDEXCME:BKX), which could have completed gray iv, but in my opinion it has the wrong look for a completed correction. I'm presently inclined to think this index makes another new low before it makes a new high.
Click to enlarge
Next up is the S&P 500
(INDEXSP:.INX) near-term chart. I'm favoring a somewhat unconventional resolution here -- but again, this is pure instinct, and my instincts can be wrong.
Click to enlarge
Finally, the SPX hourly chart.
Click to enlarge
In conclusion, I'm fully prepared to shift my intermediate footing depending on how the next couple sessions shake out, but I still feel the charts have bearish potential and, at the moment anyway, I still feel that they'd look better with a new low. Trade safe.
Follow me on Twitter while I try to figure out exactly how to make practical use of Twitter: @PretzelLogic.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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