Nutrisystem: It's Pricey, but It's Chart Is Looking Good

By MoneyShow.com  AUG 30, 2013 12:00 PM

Nutrisystem has been climbing steadily off its lows, and the chart looks almost perfect.

 


Nutrisystem (NASDAQ:NTRI) has been in business for over 40 years, and provides its clients with a complete menu, counseling, and online tools and applications along with cookbooks and complete meal planning.

Currently, its two celebrity spokespeople are Dan Marino and Marie Osmond. Since most of the company's revenues are from direct consumer sales, well-known celebrities, plus a heavy marketing spend, have been features of this operation.

Recently, the company released its second-quarter financials to June 30. Revenues for the quarter were $97.5 million (with operating income of $9.8 million), both of which, were in line with the company's expectations, although revenue fell short of analysts' predictions. EBITDA for the quarter was $13.5 million.

The company has no debt, other than standing bank arrangements, so it appears to be in a position to continue to pay the hefty dividend of $0.175 per quarter ($0.70 annually). It also increased its guidance for the rest of this year.

The new CEO, Dawn Zier, reported that earnings increased by 57%, driven by continued gross margin improvement and scaled back marketing costs.

The company is now focused on growing revenue as well as continuing to improve margins. The danger with that approach is that it will end up scaling back its marketing budget too much—it's a fine line.

The stock performance over the last few years has been spotty. It peaked at $70 per share in 2006-07, and then followed the rest of the market down in 2008-09. The last couple of years have been pretty dismal with the shares trading sideways to down.

However, the stock has been trading very well for the last few months, and with a dividend yield of 5.5%, it looks like it will continue to run, even though the shares are starting to look very expensive on a p/e basis.

I don't normally like buying into companies that are this pricey, but Nutrisystem recently announced a new partnership with Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) which could be the proverbial game changer for the business. It is now offering its weight-loss kick-start program exclusively at nearly 3,700 Wal-Mart stores.

Citigroup recently raised its price target from $10 to $15, buying into the turnaround story and pointing out that the company only needs a 2% share to become a billion-dollar brand.

This is definitely not a widows and orphans stock but rather requires a degree of risk tolerance. However it has been climbing steadily off its lows and the chart looks almost perfect.

Editor's Note: This article was written by Glenn Rogers, the contributing editor of Internet Wealth Builder, for MoneyShow.

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