The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.
Crude oil’s volatility may have been affected partially by the dollar’s drop Tuesday. But the dollar’s drop, which is trying to resume its recent decline, has an opportunity to form a durable bottom if another rally begins without delay.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com
Sep Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
The congestion of Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day made the next trending attempt likely to fail. That would help to recover from trending down first that retests prior lows. Prior lows were tested Tuesday, so closing back above 81.45 would now launch a new rally leg. The pattern is otherwise vulnerable to extending the decline.
Sep Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The congestion of Monday’s narrowly ranging inside day made the next trending attempt likely to fail. That would help to recover from trending up that retests recent highs. Tuesday did test prior highs, so reversing to close back under 1.3333 would now launch a new downleg. The pattern is otherwise vulnerable to extending the rally.
Oct Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Tuesday’s narrow ranging around 1375.00 did not affect the pattern. Not extending down further prevented trapping shorts that would have been reliable for extending the rally.
Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Ranging narrowly Tuesday still held under the 24.00 bounce limit whose recovery would signal the rally was extending.
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Tuesday’s gap up to test Monday’s upper-end was too shallow to even begin invalidating the two prior sessions’ consecutive lower closes, and the balance of the session ranged around 131-06. The two prior sessions’ setup requires at least one more new low close, which the gap back down to Monday’s close will try to attract.
Oct Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Monday’s close had not yet resumed the rally off of its 106.25 pullback limit test, requiring the rally to resume by Tuesday’s open. Instead, the open gapped down to test 105.20. An intraday bounce up to 107.00 was retraced entirely back down to new session lows testing 104.65. Gapping up Wednesday above 106.25 would signal the rally has resumed.
Sep Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Monday’s gap up did not extend higher Tuesday, failing to provide a confirming second consecutive higher close. Lower prior highs down to 3.36 are likely to be tested before the rally can resume.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.