Crude Oil's Pop Came Too Late to Gain Traction

By Rod David  JUN 04, 2013 3:50 PM

Tuesday's warning shot across the bow could be a direct hit if fired again early Wednesday.

 


The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today’s Highlight: Crude oil’s post-open pop came too late to gain traction. But it still suggests that pent-up buying pressure is beginning to boil over.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Tuesday’s bounce was too shallow to reverse momentum up above 83.15, although the "lower prior highs” that were tested Monday were reinforced as support.

Eurodollar
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Tuesday’s narrow hovering under the rally’s 1.3110 target suggested that at least a momentary fresh high is needed to create a slingshot effect that can reverse down.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
All of Monday’s rally was retraced Tuesday back down to under 1390.00. The close narrowly avoided recovering 1398.50 so there remains potential for another drop Wednesday to resume the decline.

Silver
May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Tuesday’s gap down to and through the 22.35 sell signal did a more thorough job of filling the gap back to 22.22 that was rejected too impatiently Monday for its bottom to be durable. But the balance of the session only hovered there optimistically, suggesting the drop would resume and extend.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Narrow sideways ranging around 1405-00 (basis Sep, 141-06 basis Jun) avoided breaking lower, which continues to allow a bottoming pattern to form.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Didn’t rally immediately Tuesday, and only after initially dipping was there a rally to fresh highs attacking 94.50. Having originated too late, it was retraced back under prior highs down to 92.75. Nevertheless, the same setup applies to Wednesday, with any immediate rally being credible for extending to 96.00 and probably then on to 98.10.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Tuesday’s sideways ranging offered no new information, although surging early through 4.01 would be credible for extending higher to at least test the 4.11 buy signal.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

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