Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
I’ve arrived at the conclusion that I've made a mistake.
Over the last two weeks, I wore my professional obligations on my sleeve like a badge of honor when I should have taken a genuine step back to focus on my post-surgery recovery. I am
healing; in hindsight, however, I probably did myself and our community a disservice in trying to do too many things at once rather than focusing on doing one (or two, or three) things well.
In terms of market exposure, I currently have one-half of an S&P
(INDEXSP:.INX) short position on my sheets (exposure initiated late last week) with a stop on the other side of S&P 1650.
It's been wrong and still feels wrong, but I'll play this hand through as a function of process. The mechanics of the swing always trump the results of that at-bat; right or wrong, you must stay true to your process.
For someone who has been notoriously early for most of my career, it would appear that I'm channeling Kenny Rogers
—the singer, not the chicken restaurant—a tad late this time around. As I wrote yesterday, it (bad trades) happens to the best of us, although it is never pleasant to lose money. We work hard to drive value in Minyanville but at the end of the day, we must stay true to our core values of honesty, trust, and respect. I've stunk up the joint a bit the last few weeks, and I own that.
In terms of taking a look around the landscape, there are positives—the price action in financials, persistent rotation, broad leadership—and negatives—moves in stocks like Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA), the notion you can buy any given Tuesday and make money, the gold smeltage, a (perceived) bubble in complacency
—so please see both sides, even if the market has been decidedly one-sided. That's not a bearish statement; it's a logical one, and perhaps a profitable one, depending on the timing.
(the 2010 high) and S&P 1650
(the top end of t
he trend channel) are pixels away from triggering yet another breakout, one that may prove to be the "blow-off" but one that must be respected through a technical lens. As always, the ability to sync your risk profile and time horizon remains one of the most important elements to profitable endeavors in the marketplace.
Five Charts You Need to Know
The parabolic frolic in Tesla
The next-step for the banks
A longer-term look at the banks
The S&P trend-channel
The growing disparity between stocks and commodities
Per my good friend and sage seer Jeff Saut, yesterday was the 18th consecutive "up" Tuesday, which was the longest daily streak since the "Winning Wednesday" run of 24 straight days in 1968 (I was still a martini at the time). In terms of the "buying stampede," we're currently at 94 straight sessions without a 3-day pullback, which is pretty staggering, as these things go.
Position in SPY.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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