Trading Radar: First Quarter Expected to Show Big Growth in GDP, Consumption

By Michael Sedacca  APR 19, 2013 4:50 PM

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

 


The past week saw intense volatility creep back into the market for the first time this year. Gold crashed on Monday, losing 9% in a single day and capping a 13% two-day slide. TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) took a major hit after an auction of 5-year notes on Thursday bordered on a failure. In the end, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) lost 2.25% of value on the week. Notable breakdowns included Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) all following decent quarters.

Next week we can expect the yen to continue to weaken as the G-20 effectively gave Japan the green light to continue with its current policies. However, given recent posturing by China, it looks as is if they are ramping up the pressure on Japan and the US on their foreign exchange efforts. Look for this to be a popular topic next week, or even this weekend.

Continuing a look ahead at next week, there are two pieces of economic data that stand out. Durable goods orders on Wednesday will be one highlight for the week; expectations are for a 3% monthly drop, but the important figure of ex-large aircraft orders is expected to show minor growth. For GDP growth, the first estimate of 1Q GDP will be released. Economists are expecting an annualized gain of 3.1% and a strong 2.8% gain in personal consumption. Given the data we've received in personal spending for the quarter, we'd expect that number to miss to the downside.

On the calendar for next week in the global economic sphere is Chinese manufacturing PMI, UK 1Q GDP, and a Bank of Japan policy decision. For the UK, GDP is expected to show a 0.1% quarterly gain and a 0.4% annualized gain, hopefully negating the possibility of a triple-dip recession. In China, manufacturing growth is expected to stay moderate, which should be no great shakes for Chinese stocks. Lastly, with Japan, there is the possibility that the central bank increases their asset purchase plan as its board of governors hinted at as much this past week. Currently, the Bank of Japan buys about $75 billion in bonds each month.

There will be over 200 US earnings reports next week. Notable reports include Ford (NYSE:F), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), AT&T (NYSE:T), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), UPS (NYSE:UPS), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Chevron (NYSE:CVX).

Monday, April 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity – prior 0.44
10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 5.00M, prior 4.98M
11:00 Fed buying $3b - $3.75b notes in 5.5 to 7-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 CHF Real Estate Index
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Haliburton (HAL)
Hasbro (HAS)
Caterpillar (CAT)
After:
Netflix (NFLX)
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Illumina (ILMN)


Tuesday, April 23
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:58 Markit Preliminary PMI
09:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.6%, prior 0.8%
10:00 Richmond Fed – consensus 2.0, prior 3.0
10:00 New Home Sales – consensus 418K, prior 411K
11:00 Fed buying $750m-$1b notes in 10 to 19-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence
06:00 CHF Trade Balance
08:00 EUR Eurozone Composite PMI
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
12:30 CAD Retail Sales
21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

Earnings

Before:
DuPont (DD)
Travelers Insurance (TRV)
Radioshack (RSH)
United Tech (UTX)
T Rowe Price (TROW)
AK Steel (AKS)
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Discover Financial (DFS)
Arch Coal (ACI)
Xerox (XRX)

After:
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
AT&T (T)
Apple (AAPL)
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Cree (CREE)
Yum Brands (YUM)
Broadcom (BRCM)
Juniper Networks (JNPR)
VMWare (VMW)

Coach (COH)
Delta Airlines (DAL)


Wednesday, April 24

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Durable Goods Orders – consensus -2.9%, prior 5.7%
08:30 Durables Ex Transports – consensus 0.6%, prior -0.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.4%, prior -2.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Ship – prior 1.9%
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD CPI
08:00 EUR German IFO Economic Expectations
08:30 GBP BBA Home Loans
11:00 Italy to sell bonds
11:30 Germany selling EU2b 30-year bonds

Earnings

Before:
Virgin Media (VMED)
Hess (HESS)
Corning (GLW)
Hershey’s (HSY)
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Waste Management (WM)
Wyndham (WYN)
Ford (F)
Sprint (S)
NASDAQ (NDAQ)
Boeing (BA)

After:
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Stryker (SYK)
F5 Networks (FFIV)
Aflac (AFL)
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)
Western Digital (WDC)
Zynga (ZNGA)
Fusion-io (FIO)
General Dynamics (GD)

Akamai (AKAM)


Thursday, April 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 352K, prior 352K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3060K, prior 3068K
11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus -2, prior -5
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:30 GBP GDP
23:30 JPY CPI


Earnings

Before:
Coca-Cola (KO)
Colgate (CL)
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Harley Davidson (HOG)
3M (MMM)
Conoco Phillips (COP)
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Southwest Airlines (LUV)
Altria (MO)
UPS (UPS)
Raytheon (RTN)
After:
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)
Freescale Semi (FSL)
Altera (ALTR)
Skyworks (SWKS)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Deckers (DECK)
Coinstar (CSTR)
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Expedia (EXPE)
Netgear (NTGR)


Bristol Meyers (BM)
Dow Chemical (DOW)
JetBlue (JBLU)
Dunkin Brands (DNKN)


Friday, April 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 3%, prior 0.4%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 2.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 1.4%, prior 1.0%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence – consensus 73.5, prior 72.3
11:00 Fed buying $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 10-year sector

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision
03:00 JPY BoJ Releases Policy Statement
06:30 JPY Kuroda Press Conference
07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicators

Earnings

Before:
Chevron (CVX)
Weyerhauser (WY)
DR Horton (DRH)
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Burger King (BKW)
AbbVie (ABBV)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

No positions in stocks mentioned.

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