Random Thoughts: Volatility Rocks the Markets

By Todd Harrison  APR 17, 2013 11:53 AM

What to watch for, and when.

 


Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

I'm learning to fly, but I ain't got wings. Coming down is the hardest thing.
-- Tom Petty

It’s Hump Day in Gotham and you know what that means—we’re halfway home on the weekly trek toward our requisite respite. With earnings coming fast and furious, and market volatility picking up in kind, there’s no rest for the weary, at least not yet.

The way I see it, the series of "lower highs" (a sign of distribution) remains intact under S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1570.  You will also remember S&P 1580 from previous missives—The S&P Alley-Oops—and that remains critical through a longer-term lens. Technical resistance is now tranched between S&P 1570-1610, so where you stand is a function of where you sit (as it pertains to your time horizon, risk profile, and stylistic approach).

Of course, nestled within our forward probability spectrum is the potential that bad news will continue to get shrugged off; for all I know, that could have been the sell-off, all 2.82% of it, peak-to-trough (consistent with Camp 2 discussed yesterday). 

I don't believe that will prove true—remember, there are three phases of leave—but if we're to practice what we preach, discipline must always trump conviction and we should always see both sides as we continue to find our way.

Random Thoughts:
R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Position in SPY.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.