Random Thoughts: Stock Picks and the Equity Fix

By Todd Harrison  MAR 13, 2013 10:55 AM

Piecing together the complex market puzzle.


Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

Hoofy—our resident bull—just walked by my turret and said, "Hit me again Ike, and this time put some STANK on it!

He has some swagger in his step and for good reason; consistent with what we've witnessed since mid-November 2012 and despite nose-bleed sentiment levels—the “bend-not-break” mentality continues to continue, or at least that’s been the pattern as I ready to publish this column. 

I will also note, because it's a curious coincidence if nothing else, that the top of the current trend-channel in the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) coincides with our MOAL (mother of all levels) at S&P 1580.  I’ve been playing more stocks and less market in here (particulars below) but if and when we get there, I’ll unleash Boo (our resident bear) for a trade given the confluence of time horizons.

Looking at the tape the other way—always see both sides—initial support resides in and around S&P 1525 (before the lower trend-line comes into play slightly above S&P 1500) and NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) 2750/60 and until such time those levels are broken, the bulls will say, "What, me worry?"  (I’m hopeful that some readers still “get” that reference!)

We spoke earlier in the week—or was it last week?—that Technical Analysis 101 dictates that the optimal time to buy a breakout is on a retest (which was one of the reasons behind my Fade Trade on Friday, which has since been unwound) but that's a guide, not a law.  That’s why I continue to view the markets through a stair-step lens; this method of risk management allows up to trip, but not fall.

Strange days in the world—in more ways than one—but all we can do is the best we can do, and there's no hidden meaning there.  That applies to YOU, ME, and the rest of us as we strive to balance the important stuff—family, friends, smiles—with the processes necessary to prosper in an increasingly complex and competitive world. 

Nobody ever said it was going to be easy, and you know what they say—nobody is always right!

Random Thoughts:

Disclosure: Minyanville has a business relationship with BlackBerry.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Position in FB, BBRY.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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