The past two weeks reminded me of the market action around the fiscal cliff at year-end: Lots of noise, lots of politics, and lots of emotion. This is all natural, but it is also all potentially detrimental to your investing/trading health. Trust me, I care
about our nation and desperately want our leaders to take steps to deal with our imbalances now -- what’s happening in the Western world with sovereign debts is truly scary stuff. But I also trade what’s in front of me: price. And it is with this in mind that I have learned to focus on technical and psychological price points to determine where the market is going.
A quick and dirty look at the S&P 500
(INDEXSP:.INX) daily chart (the first chart below) focuses our attention on a few important macro support levels:
1. The November to current uptrend line around 1475 and rising.
2. The 50-day moving average around 1483.
3. The .382 Fibonacci retracement of the December 31 to February 19 move/wave around 1480.
But to find out if any of these supports will matter and/or come into play, we need to zoom in on the short-term chart (the second chart below). Here you can see the importance of 1497 as symmetrical support. The price action today came close (1501), which may be good enough for a “test.” Either way, I am watching that level. Should that give way, look for the aforementioned confluence of macro supports to come into play around 1480. There’s really not a lot of nearby support below that level over than a September/October closing cluster around 1460.
On the upside, I’m watching the highs from Monday/Thursday around 1525. If the market can overtake this level, then new highs are likely. I would then put 1549 and March 15 on the radar; this intersection of time and price is at the higher end of my target topping range that came out of my in-depth VIX (^VIX) reversal analysis
. Happy trading.
S&P 500 ZOOM Chart
Editor's Note: Andrew Nyquist is an independent investor based in the Minneapolis area. This article originally appeared on his investing and economics site, See It Market.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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