Love for Sale: Will 2013 Mimic the 2003 Stock Market?

By Todd Harrison  FEB 14, 2013 11:30 AM

History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.


Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

It's Valentine's Day in the city of critters and you know what that means on Wall Street—absolutely nothing!  In fact, the love-fest for financial markets has been extremely one-sided this year—hugs and kisses in Matador City—as the bears seek therapy to help them cope with their abandonment issues. Love is blind, as is optimism at times.

Yesterday we shared a factoid that was worthy of a nose-scrunch: 2003—a path that many predict will play through a decade later—seems to be on track thus far. Back then, the S&P rallied 7% in January, took a swift 15% kick in the teeth, and then lifted 40% (not a typo) into year-end. Yesterday, on the opening pop, the YTD gain in the S&P was— yep, you guessed it—7%, before the tape drifted lower into the close.

Mark Twain famously said, “If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.” "History doesn't always repeat, but it sometimes rhymes." As discussed yesterday as a follow-up to The Market Is Coiled--Which Way Will it Break?, the bulls currently have two feathers in their cap. The first is the price action, which is still stronger than a mule's breath, and the second is the NDX, which remains in a solid basing (above support) rather than a bearish churn (under resistance).

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I have not yet been stopped out of my S&P puts, which is either a blessing (if the tape trades lower) or a curse (the recent grind higher dinged my P&L, both directionally and through the steady drip of theta). I've been asking myself if I’m in hope mode—I was thisclose to getting stopped out yesterday morning—but it was not to be, at least not yet.

A thin line separates patience and stubbornness—it's called the bottom line—and as the market writes the script, Minyanville will tell the story.

Random Thoughts:

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Twitter: @todd_harrison

Disclosure: Minyanville has a business relationship with BlackBerry.

Position in SPX.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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